Hey there it.s november now, any news on the international front lol.

Northern nsw australia has flooded 6 times this year, recently in October, any current news would be good from around the globe.

Cheers

Monsoon is over, now only post monsoon rains are lashing the east india,which will end in a week or so.. No cyclone or rain reaching karahi... maybe next year now...

hey ali, monsoon season is over, for u but not for the arabian sea!

dear jim:
Its hot and dry all year round in karachi..except for the tail of southwset monsson do we see a few intermittent downpours..the bay of bengal often somtimes breed a storm as compared to the arabian sea..such kind of "rare" events often attracts many from the subcontinent and the arab world.. they can only "watch" wats happening out there..but its only ur expertise to foresee the Imminent.. we can only "observe".. who ever we are..

thanks for ur consideration..

Ali Ahmed from Karachi.

Reply:

Dear Ali,

It is no different with me -- I am only a watcher of the weather myself. That is whether it be here in Pennsylvania, USA, or the Subcontinent (by way of my "tools of the trade" here at AccuWeather.com).

Jim

dear jim
if you dont mind
what is your expectations about the cyclonic activity in the arabian sea ?

Dear Jim thanks to your blog so many weather buffs like me are kept busy,so much so that every individual thinks he has mastered the forecast system and make his or her assumptions thanks to numerous weather channels,but in the end of its your presence counts as they say from the horses mouth we all have you to count on. thanks a lot for your insight & sharing your thoughts & giving us your numerous views on weather. regards once again

Hello Jim..
I wanted to investigate abt the monsoon "low" which pounded very heavy rain(cumulative >200mm) in karachi on the night of july 18 2009. the atm pressure got down to 993hpa and temp rose to 39C on july 17..On june 25,2007 cyclone yemyin passed closed to karachi with pressure (min) to be around 990hpa(at khi)..(temp 44C) wasnt that monsoon low (july 18 2009) a depression?

there was not much a pressure difference.. or was a very strong LPA?

does these kind of low level cyclonic circulation (LLCC) consists of mesoscale convective complexes(MCC) as with july 2009 low?

What causes cyclonic circulation in an LPA?

do all LPAs rotate?

I have observed GFS to be very accurate within two days of the forecast..as it nears it becomes inaccurate..but BBC numerical forecast is highly accurate as compared with GFS.

The current cyclone senario of GFS is following the usual (NW) track of cyclone Gonu..would u believe that high odd such as "Phyan" will happen as a post monsoon weather system?

Can u compare weather parameters of arabian sea prior to cyclone yemyin/gonu and current observation of the arabian sea(wats likely)?

Are numericals forecast done by super computers?

thanks in advance..be patient and plz do reply :))
im a graduate student in enggineering..and an enthusiast of met.. waits for severe weather/thunderstorm events all year round !

Reply:

Dear Ali,

Wow. I could fill a bit answering all of these questions (assuming I were able to).

Let me first say that my terminology is not necessarily precise and that I do not know the strict characterization of the July, 2009, low. Minimum surface pressure, alone, is not enough to rule in or rule TD status for the July, 2009, low, I would say.

Based upon my memory of satellite imagery, the thunderstorm complex may have qualified as an "MCC", but I cannot say. Again, it is a matter of strict definitions, as I see it.

Yes, it is only natural for lows/L.P.A.s to rotate.

As for numerical forecast models, they have traditionally been run on the most advanced supercomputers. This could no longer be true, but I do not know this.

Time does not allow me to delve into the matter of the present case versus Yemyin and Gonu. Latest information seems to show that past history (climatology) has the answer -- that the cyclone weather system that will be off western India later this will should veer northward and northeastward, thereby missing Karachi.

I hope I helped a little, Ali. I know that I am not able to answer all of what you ask.

Jim

Hi Jim,please tell me if the the bay of bengal does develop a tropical cyclone is the energy from the super typhoon Choi-Wan to be blamed? secondly the energy from these typhoons can they lead to another typhoon? and lastly can two major typhoons or hurricanes mesh into one and if so has it ever taken place with what consequences? regards,Anuj Arora

Reply:

I do not know, Anuj. It may have been tied to Choi-wan or to a much weaker south China cyclone.

Jim

No cyclone is coming in the Sub-continent, the monsoon season is over.

hi Jim
this is tejas from india...
I would like to ask about the prospects of rain in pune in coming week..I am confused over the inconsitencies that i have seen in rainfall pattern over the subcontinent...are these all effects of climate change...what does india expect in future?

reply:

Dear Tejas,

As October is still a "wet" month in Pune (90 mm or so), a few thunderstorms should be expected with a reasonably well defined low crossing this part of the Deccan.

I am not ready to say that there has been a "paradigm shift", weather wise, in the Subcontinent.

Jim

Dear jim:Updated gfs forecast is showing heavy rain over easterly oman but not over karachi.what's the reason behind it?

Reply:

Dear Shoaib,

I would say that it was a "fluke" or "artifact". As I have been saying, the numerical forecasts are not to be taken as literal beyond at most several days forward in time.

Jim

Hi Jim,

Regarding the cyclone forecast over the Arabian sea, I'm surprised by the fact GFS persistence of such a forecast. And the latest run (0000Z Sep 24) takes the storm to Oman!

My confidence of a tropical low over the Arabian sea is growing since there are similar forecasts by NOGAPS and ECMWF. But I highly doubt that track and intensity shown by the GFS. Nevertheless, all doors are open for everything or even nothing.

Todays reports have further diluted the possibility of any major weather build-up in the Bay. It seems atmost a feeble low pressure may be the weather maker. So finally the spate of thundershowers hitting the peninsula must be the signoff for the monsoon.

Hi Jim,
What is afoot in the Med? UK forcasters talking of over a foot of rain for Italy, how close to a tropical weather system is this?
Regards,
J

Reply:

Jules,

Sorry, but I missed that. I do not know the answer to your question, but I will say that there is a continuum between "purely tropical" and "purely mid-latitude" weather systems. I am not aware of any tropical cyclone happening on the Med, though.

Jim

DEAR JIM:Accuweather is not showing any rain for karachi Is this means that there is no chance of rain over karachi next week?You also have less confidence on GFS forecast.

Reply:

I believe that it is unlikely, but not that there is "no chance".

Jim

Are there any chances that this future cyclone have effects on Karachi??? plz reply

Reply:

Dear Babar,

Right now, this most likely effect I see is that the low would make Karachi hotter than usual.

Jim