--I find it hard to resist posting satellite images showing the majesty and near-symmetry of a major tropical cyclone:
Thanks to the JTWC, we have here an infrared shot of Category 5 Super Typhoon Choi-wan. Forecasters at the JTWC have (as of 1200 UTC on Wednesday) reckoned highest sustained winds at 140 knots/260 kph outside of that near-perfect eye at the heart of Choi-wan.
Location of the eye at the time was over open water about 1,800 km south of Tokyo, Japan, and 700 km north-northwest of Guam. Movement was towards the west-northwest at 7 kts/13 kph.
Choi-wan has not yet begun to veer northward, but such behavior is still forecast by numerical forecasts. Delayed recurving means that Choi-wan should swing a bit wider to the west of the Volcano (Kazan) and Bonin (Ogasawara) Islands on Thursday and Friday, by which time it should be headed to the north. However, it could still be a super typhoon having highest winds of at least 130 knots.
Next, westerlies over mainland Japan should lend more than enough eastward push to veer Choi-wan well out to the east at the end of the week.
--The thoughts I had as stated in the foregoing post with respect to severe weather in the near south of South America still hold true today. Indeed, the first batch of these storms has already arisen over Paraguay, northeastern Argentina and neighboring southern Brasil. I believe that odds for severe wind, hail, rain and even a rare tornado or two will be highest on Thursday to late Friday.
Get a handy weather station and convenient public alert radio, all for one great price.
The Public Alert Docking Weather Station - available at AccuWeather's AccuMall.
© 2009 AccuWeather, Inc.
All Rights Reserved.
AccuWeather.com is a registered trademark of AccuWeather, Inc.
Terms of usage under which this service is provided.
Privacy Statement
192.168.77.133 | MNMC
Subscribers sign-in to AccuWeather Premium | AccuWeather Professional | AccuWeather RadarPlus
Not a Member? Read all about Premium, Professional, RadarPlus, and LightningPlus
RSS Feeds Available 
Podcasts Available 
Blogs Available
This page may contain Mapping and GPS Navigation Systems provided by GeoMicro, Inc.
what a beautiful looking eye/storm!!
Posted by andy | September 21, 2009 8:40 AM
Dear Jim,
http://www.pakmet.com.pk/agro/index_files/Page391.htm this is a link of GFS which shows cyclonic activity over arabian sea and good widespread soakng rains ... what do you say about it ...and what can you predict for karachi next coming week...
Reply:
Hi Musab.
Please see the foregoing comment.
Jim
Posted by Musab | September 21, 2009 3:58 AM
Dear jim:What about next(two to three)weeks in karachi?
Reply:
Dear Shoiab,
Dry weather for at least the next 10-12 days. Thereafter, I do not know. Interesting to see one model solution showing a tropical storm over the Arabia before veering northeast to a landfall on Pakistan.
I will not be believing any such scenario before seeing it shown consistently for several days.
Jim
Posted by shoaib | September 17, 2009 5:43 PM
High SST,low wind shear,TUTT and you have a perfect T6.5 to T7.0 storm. What-up with the atlantic this year... Must be ol'man El Nino!
---------------------------------------------
Bravo to Choi-wan for not hitting any land-masses.
Nice chance to study such a storm without the worry of death involved.
Reply,
Thank you for the comment, Lewis.
Jim
Posted by Lewis Mccane | September 16, 2009 2:23 PM