Northern Jersey brace for impact. That's where the snow will hit.

Is there the chance this potential storm will hit NW Ohio (Findlay, Toledo, Bowling Green, and Upper Sandusky) area?

ALright it is Tennessee's turn for a big snow. We are so over due. The last big snow was in 02 and we only had 6 inches. In the 93 blizzard we had over 15 inches. Come on storm, I am hoping for a more westward track.

This storm is gonna be huge Henry with alot of snow for Cleveland Ohio were in the direct path. Do you think a state of emergency will be issued and how bad do you think the wind gusts will get?

Hey I live in Cleveland Ohio and we already got pounded by a 15 inch snowstorm!!! is this one on monday through wednsday be worse??. I have a weird feeling about this one with all the wind that is expected. I hope it isnt like the blizzard of 78 can you please email me about this thanks

Henry,

This is the first storm I have seen since November that is tracking from the Gulf to the northeast. I see the trough going negative, and I was wondering what the NAO is showing? I sent you an e-mail awhile back speculating that the big daddy would come in Feb or March. I think this looks like an upslope Big Daddy. I think the track that takes it right along the coast or a little inland in the right one. We should call this a I-81 Big Daddy. I think anyone living along I-81 better hold onto their hat. This is a classic set-up for this kind of storm. Check back to 1978 Henry. There were three storms in five days that dumped fifty plus inches where you live right now. A front passed through and stalled along the eastern seabord and although the storms were not strong pressure wise they had a lot of moisture. I am very concerned that after this big daddy goes through that we are going to have two to three weeks of winter fun along the eastern seaboard. We may all be praying for Phil to see his shadow come tuesday.

Your New Cumberland twin
Henry

Well we here in NH will just wait and see. We have received a lot of snow over these last few storms and are nearing last years totals which set records. IF this storm happens and tracks east then we might just have no place to put snow. Rain would definately cause major flooding issues here. I would rather it track east as snow is much easier to deal with than ice.

We in New England know if you don't like the weather wait a day it will change. I will leave you all on that note.

Hey Henry,

You said yesterday that the consensus in the office was that the storm forecast for next week would be a little farther to the east than the models are saying. Is there any specific reason why you said that? Seems like it will probably be on the west track option the graphics are showing...any reason not to believe it will not the same track as all the other storms this winter? Or, it will just go too far to the east and miss us completely.

Steve

Henry how much snow could we see.I live in eastern Pa do you think it will be rain snow or ice. Please snow!!!!!! fell free to email me back with your answer.

The 6z run of the GFS continues to show the storm hugging the coast and not going just off it. Im not worried because it is still 5 days away. But how about this the model showed the pressure dropping all the way to 968mb over New York. That would be an incredible storm if that came true. Hoping for the Blizzard here in northern Jersey!!

I see the storm on the last two model runs but I DO NOT see the right placement or enough cold air in place and moving into SE PA. The storms this year keep showing the warm air forcing the cold air out as the precip arrives for my area. I do not see anywhere near enough cold air in SE PA prior to the storm. I fear RAIN for SE PA and rain for Bucks County for me. I'm getting the umbrella ready (again), If the storm shifts too much more east it will be off the coast and miss anyway.

As a former Meteorology major back in the late 70's, and one who believes too many meteorologists are making mistakes these days because they rely too much on models, my request would be to not hype or even talk about the possibility of a storm publicly until closer to the storm date. Meteorologists have forgotten to use their brains and education it seems along with the models and are relying too much on models alone (which are NOT accurate and should only be used as a general tool.)

I hope this storm bodes well for New Jersey and we get hammered with snow. But I also am
sitting in 4 inches of snow and ice from yesterday when everyone was calling for 4-8, 6-10 and 6-12. Of snow. Please lets keep things in perspective.

Hi, we live north of Pittsburgh about 20 miles in Butler, Pa. and everytime it snows we get so much more than what the weather channel or tv stations say. Will we get slammed again or have heavy amounts of snow for the Groundhog Day Storm?? I remember the big one in 93, and would like to be prepared this time.

It is forecast to be in upper 40's next Mon and Tues in Philly.......does this mean a huge rain storm for us?

Your forecast for S. Central PA for that supposed "big daddy" - heavy rain, 45 degrees. I don't need a GFS model to tell me that. We got the biggest storm of the year yesterday, a whopping 3 inches plus a layer of ice. Its entertaining to read these types of columns and wish it would actually happen though.

With the usual strong High off of the coast, my guess is it will be another "cutter" and head up the mountains / western PA. Ohio will get the blizzard. This has been the case for 80% of the storms this winter. Hope I am wrong for the snowlovers here in SE PA. This may a huge rain / snow maker.
Ted
Lancaster County, PA

As much as I would like a good old I-95 Blizzard similar to 1996, must say can't become overly excited in the models for four reasons:

1. The typical NYC/LI 2008-2009 Winter pattern of snow changing to rain, no cold air in place now.

2. Time factor of over a week away, much can happen or not in a week.

3. Temperature forecast for Sunday and Monday here on Long Island in the mid and upper 40's.

4. Local New York City TV Weather Forecasts from Channels 2,4,5,7,9 and 11 are basically showing Rain and Snow Showers with not a hint of a big storm.

i have been in atlanta for 12 years...i have heard this nonsense before..and nothing happens. so until i see the blizzard, i will just yawn...

Henry, the models are suggesting a 984 milibar low pressure system forming in the Gulf and moving toward Philly!
Henry, you and I know all to well that when severe thunderstorms occur with a winter storm, that storm will be a big daddy!
I am alraeady warning everyone here in Pitsburgh of the potential.

Hi- I live in Carrolltown (aka Little Alaska), Cambria County in Pennsylvania. This winter, our area consistently received two to three times the amount of snow that was forecasted. Will this Big Daddy slam northern Cambria County?

Hoping for a repeat of the Blizzard of '96 here on Long Island! That was one amazing storm!

Hi,

I live in Southern Ontario near Toronto, and i want to know about the storm next week, is it going to bring in Snowfall for my area?

i want to be prepared, after this recent storm.

henry, i thought you said a big daddy was a snowstorm for I95 corridor too?? so you changed it because you people in state college will get another one, so what else is new ?? and you hype it up? big deal the snow will fall where it has all year... AND THATS NEWS WORTHY?? duhh!!

We can only hope Henry. Would love to go out in all that snow after the storm with my son. On the BAD side, it means we teachers will probably be going to school until July 'cause it'll take a week to get all the schools dug out :-)

Whoa there big fella! Let's not get ahead ourselves......

Let's be real monday is still 5 days away!

I will agree there is potential, but after that I will till sunday to see if the same scenario is in the works!

Optimitic, but cautious in central PA!

Fellow angst-meisters
I'm pretty sure from the models I've looked at(which by the way are sloshing in the brown bottles in front of me)that the snow aspect of this storm will eventually migrate further west and north than currently anticipated and most of the coastal plain except northern ME will be dealing with torrential rain and flooding from the melt of the current mostly meager snowpack.
By sloshing the magical carbonated fluid a bit more it becomes apparent that we will be enlightened by the professionals that this is indeed the solution by Friday PM.

Here in Richmond, we are wishing those models take the storm up the coast. That is the only way we get any big snows around here. My son is 10 years old and never has experienced a "Big Daddy!" We have our fingers crossed!

I just noticed that the track goes over central New England which means another sloppy mess for the Berkshires, which also means that we probably won't see a foot of snow from a storm until at least next year. Last footer for us was the February Blizzard of 2006 and that dumped 21 inches on us. Four inches with ice and sleet this time, am I wrong? I think we are going to go for three years without a footer and that makes me mad because I hate these mized storms. The weather is worse with those storms because its hard to walk anywhere. Ugh. IDK, mabye it will come true. I am more inclined that it will go farther west which would mean rain and flooding for us. It hasn't rained for awhile so that is what I believe. until further evidence of backing these theories up I will not even be inclined to know of a blizzard for us. I don't think this is our year because of the weather pattern we have had. 91-92 and 92-93 were snowy years and so were 96-97 and 97-98 which means if the weather last year had no monster snow falling for us then no monster snow will fall for us this year. Anyways, I will keep track of it even knowing that we'll probably end up with a mix once again. Even the 93 and 96 storms weren't much for northern Berkshires in Adams, MA.

I hope youre right! washington dc is long due for a blizzard

Henry - if the criteria for you going into Big Daddy mode is a huge snowstorm missing the 30 million people along the coast then woopdee freekind doo I say. Sure - this could be a strong storm but it will rain on the majority of the listening area. Save the Big Daddy nonsense until it is real. No more hype please. And don't even try to say "just watch the weather unfold" if it means rain for the I95 again in NYC/NJ area.

My local mets in the piedmont NC dont even hint at snow. Snow???? How can it snow when the forcast high is 60??? Good luck with that. Either they are not looking at the models or are not wanting to create panic in our area.

What the heck is the GFS showing with this storm over NYC?It tracks west of the city then north then retorgrades to the south east off the coast and give NYC a blizzard after a torrential rain storm? I have never seen anything like that but it would be awesome!

PS Im moving to Boca Raton in 2 weeks so Lets go out in Style!

AJ- Hoboken NJ

i live in rowan county western piedmont n.c. let it snow. could i see the weather charts for the nam, gfs? how do you do that.

Two words: John Bolaris. Those in the Philly area will recall that in 2001 he forecasted a 'Storm of the Century' with 'blizzard conditions', etc. etc and compared it to the 1996 Blizzard. He urged people not to travel and stay home. And what happened? NOTHING. Most folks got all of 2 inches max. He was ridiculed so bad that he had to leave town for a few years and went back to NYC. He recently returned to the area on another station.

Morale of the story: Don't go hyping and over-hyping something that is a week away. Even Elliott made a mocking statement when he showed the GFS run on his blog. And told everyone not to get excited just to wait until further solutions are refined.

If it comes to fruition, I will owe you an apology. But if it doesn't be prepared for more grief from the snow-starved masses.

Of course the Blizzard of 93 missed my area with the big punch. I'm hoping for the easterly track and a snow wish for big snow for Washington Baltimore, Philadelphia and NY.

Where does the Winston Salem North Carolina area fit in to this "GIG STORM: theory comee into play and how much potnetialy could we see if this all pans out. We are tired of getting the shaft everytime we think we are going to get snow so I big snow would be very welcomed not to mention our current drought situation. Any info or advice is greatly appreciatied.

Thanks

CJ

Greetings Henry. My wife and I live in Monterey, TN and are patiently awaiting the arrival of this storm. So the more of a westerly track would definitely increase our chances for snow. Having had the oppurtunity to experience the 93 Super Storm up close and personal, We are excited about this set up. Thanks for all you do, and please keep us posted.

Don't get all excited kiddies. Most of the mets can't even get the forecast right from 12 hrs out let alone a week out. Up until last evening, the current storm was forecast to move from West VA to the Delmarva or southern PA. Instead, it went NNE through western PA into NY state. Actually, the local ABC affiliate in NYC (also Accuweather) was the only one that actually said last night that the storm was going to move up west of the mtns and not south of PHL or NYC. So putting any hope in a "Big Daddy" almost a week away is foolish.

My memory of the 93 blizzard was a windy 70 degree day in February where I wore shorts in Va Beach while talking on the phone to a friend in Charlottesville who had 3 feet of snow covering his car completely in a drift.

With the models track record this year, I'll forgive the Big Daddy reference Henry only if the GFS shows it 200 miles off shore, so when the inevitable NW retreat begins as we get closer to Monday the storm will be where we want it, and not once again cutting up the mountains.

Please be right Henry! All my 3 year old wants is to build a snowman and with all of this slop we haven't been able to do it. So I'm crossing my fingers! And by the way, I miss the frequency of your blogs.

Henry,

Please don't get me excited. As I have seen over the years, and you too, is that the models never agree until 4 or less days out. So with them agreeing is a disagreement. I am with you on the possibility, but my followers (local friends that trust my forecasts and I use accuweather alot in my analysis) need to know exactly what will happen. I have given them the idea that it is a 20% possibility this far out and the longer the models point to this scenario, the greater the percentage. Thanks for the analysis and I will be reading and watching you and Joe for the "word".

Matt
Columbia, Maryland

Henrey,

Being in South Jersey and witnessing both the " SuperStorm of 93 and the unforgettable blizzard of 96 where we had close to 3 feet of snow on the ground, I tend to get very excited about big storms. One difference I have noticed with recent storms and those is that the truly memeorable ones tended to have been on the map early on, and were forcast with pretty good certainty well in advance. They also were storms you could actually follow that dove into the Gulf of mexico and rapidly developed running up the Eastern Seaboard with very cold high pressure sitting to their north and west. So far this time, I am hearing nothing but rain and snow showers forecast for Mon/Tues, and the air that will be in place in the Mid Atlantic will be marginally cold at best. Can you elaborate some on where the as for mentioned area of energy or low pressure currently resides, and will we see it redevelope in the Gulf? Arctic air to the north and west? Today's storm was a teaser, but considering how little snow we have received this winter, it was fun to see. A major storm would be awesome. We haven't had one of those in several years.

Keep us updated.

Thanks,

George

I think that the February weather maps
will show a blizzard Monday morning
for the east coast. I think this storm
will hook east and intensify and we
all get clobbered up I-95.

I live in Roanoke hope you are right.

Mike

Henry, what does this mean for the Delmarva Peninsula.

OH NO!!!!!! You've gotten my hopes up way too high once again Henry. I know by Monday the forecast will inevitably be another slopstorm scenario in the I95 corridor like it has been all winter. Why do you do this to me Henry, WHY?!!!!!!!!!!! Please tell the weather gods to listen to the snowlovers living along I95. Please Henry, please talk to the weather gods for us, and tell them we won't mind being snowed in, not one bit!!!!

I'm sorry, Henry. I'm still not buying it. When you say that the extreme western track is Altanta, State College, and Rochester, I have to believe that track. I'm more inclined to believe an even more western track due to the way all these storms are going. Given that these models can't even predict how your going to wipe your butt tomorrow, I simply don't believe it. It's too far away. What makes you think or anyone think that this pattern is going to change that dramatically? I can believe a slight pattern "shift" but not to a total Nor'ester pattern that hasn't shown its face in several years.

Thanks Henry for the update I live in eastern PA will there be blizzard condition's were I live. Keep us posted.

Thank Dan.

SO WHAT YOU SAYING IS ANOTHER BIG STORM FOR EVERYONE WHO HAS HAD THEM ALREADY, AND AGAIN NOTHING FOR NEW JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND?

ALL NORTH AND WEST HAVE HAD THERE SHARE OF SMALL BIG DADDYS, THE HYPE FOR THIS STORM MADE ME THINK THE COAST HAD THE BLIZZARD, GUESS NOT

Henry,

I live in Port Clinton,Ohio halfway between Toledo and Cleveland. From today's storm we got around 7-9 inches along with some drifting.

For this Big Daddy next week I would bet money that the storm will take your suggested western track and Ohio will get all the snow again. I think in the pattern were in if this storm has the chance to take a similar path to todays it is going to. Really, I just think all the people want to see a huge Blizzard because they haven't had one yet this winter. They have had a lot of snow though. There has been so many hyped storms that don't turn out. The model for the long range have consistently showed the storm low farther to the east then as the storm draws closer the low moves 200 to 300 miles farther west and making the long range forecasts look stupid.

Hi Henry, the gfs 18Z has a two storm look...What's your take on that? Plus it look's stronger on this run...Let's hope nothing changes.:)Be careful what we wish for... "Blizzard"

OH Henry: I could swear @ one time you said a Big Daddy is a storm that would bring heavy snow to the cities of the i-95 corr. from D.C , Philly. N.Y and Boston. The track you are favoring would again bring mainly rain for these areas.

As far as getting sleep why should i stay up at night unless it is thinking about how most likely the biggest storm of the winter is going to bring us rain again.

Wow,Henry,this sounds pretty exciting, It would be super to have one big snowstorm this year, as it has been a while since we have had more than an inch or two. I am from central
Bucks County. I really enjoy your site.

I hope your right. I would love to see a big storm with nice amount of snowfall. No more ice.

How could there be a blizzard with temperatures in the 38-40 range?

BIG DADDY,YESSSSSSSSS !!!!! It's about time, don't you think, Henry? How about calling it the Groundhog's Day Blizzard instead? Just thought I'd throw that out there...Phil won't see his shadow because he'll be buried in the snow !!!

I am skeptical about the storm because a foot was suppose to fall in the Berkshires. He got half that with more ice and sleet. Three snow days already. I don't want to use all of them up so soon!!

How much could the highest snow total be for this storm. Are talking over a foot from Atlanta to New England? That would be good for us and bad for them. Also, how do you see the storm impacting the Super Bowl?

Henry - let's hope this will come true. Do you think temps will hold to support this type of winter weather?

By the way the 18z NAM is how i think it plays out track wise.....

Henry, at this point- how much snow could Atlanta, GA get out of this potential big daddy snowstorm storm if the models are right and it were to come true next week?

I'll given you 20:1 odds that it rains east of the PA/NJ boarder for that storm. Do you even realize that its in the 50's in MA this evening when the models no way shape or form had this storm even close to being this far west up to Cleveland OH? Do you realize the implications here? Get ready for another dissappointment cause its coming. Need I remind you that 18z GFS is starting to hint at storm tracts returning to MN for example....

Henry! We missed you during the Ice storm. Everyone where there pajamas backwards in MD this weekend. The funny thing about the 93 comparison is that was a year also rittled with ice storms culminating in a the monstrosity that we all remember. Cold winter and some cold precip to talk about yeah man!