(State College, PA - May 14, 2009) - AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center meteorologists, led by Chief Long-Range and Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi, have released an expanded hurricane season forecast for 2009. The forecast builds on Bastardi's early-season forecast by calling for a reduced overall number of storms but warns that the East Coast of the U.S. could still be at risk of a major landfalling storm.
"As we predicted in our early season forecast, we're anticipating a major reduction in the number of overall storms compared to last year. Levels may be as low as 2006 or perhaps lower. However we expect three storms to deal at least tropical storm force winds to the U.S. coast, two of which could be hurricanes, and perhaps one major hurricane," Bastardi said "Despite the reduced number of storms, we still have the possibility of a major event that could stick out like a sore thumb...which could cause a lot of pain for some people. After all, if you live or have a business in an area struck by a hurricane it will feel like an active season for you, no matter what the overall numbers say!"
Bastardi points to several factors that are influencing the forecast and lowering the overall number of storms, including:
- A reverse to a weak El Niño, which is associated with decreased hurricane activity in the Atlantic, is most likely in the middle to latter part of the hurricane season. Bastardi commented that this is not the single dominant factor but works hand-in-hand with other suppressive factors.
- Higher pressure in much of the subtropical Atlantic will produce stronger easterly trade winds across northern Africa than last year. This will result in increased dust and dry air being pushed westward into the Atlantic where many tropical storms originate. The added dry air and increased wind shear will tend to inhibit hurricane formation.
- Cooler water temperatures in the deep tropical Atlantic, a typical breeding ground for hurricanes. Lower temperatures in this area can reduce hurricane activity and intensity. This may create a season in which storms are reaching intensity further north and east than last year, leading to less impact in the Caribbean areas hit hard last year.
Though the forecasted number of hurricanes is expected to be below normal, the area in which they can impact the U.S. has expanded in comparison to previous years. The larger potential area of impact could make it more difficult for businesses and government agencies to proactively prepare and allocate resources for the upcoming 2009 hurricane season. This could result in an increased financial burden on government agencies and businesses that are unprepared in the event of a landfalling hurricane.
"Our forecast last year emphasized a close congregation of tracks near the Bahamas. This year, we have the opposite of that classic development. The tracks are spread out, more in the Atlantic north of 25 degrees north latitude, roughly between Key West and the tip of Florida," Bastardi said. "Anywhere along the U.S. coast is susceptible to an impact, but the Texas coast early in the season and East Coast from Carolinas northward during the heart of the season are areas that have us worried."
Bastardi and his team have made the following revised forecasts for overall numbers and types of storms during the 2009 season. These totals are shown alongside 2008 storm totals for the sake of contrast.
Total storms 16
Major hurricanes 5
Storms that impact U.S. coast 8
Major hurricanes 0
Total storms 10
Major hurricanes 2
Storms that impact U.S. coast 3
Major hurricanes 0 to 1
Bastardi presented his full forecast at the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Summit in Houston, TX to an audience of leaders in industries most impacted by tropical weather. Further details are available to his AccuWeather.com EnergyPro® clients. To learn more about these private commercial forecasting services, visit www.AccuWeather.com/Bastardi.
About AccuWeather, Inc. and AccuWeather.com
AccuWeather, The World's Weather Authority®, presents accurate, localized, branded forecasts and severe weather bulletins to over 110 million Americans each day via the Internet, mobile devices and IPTV, through the airwaves, in print and on digital signage. The 113 meteorologists at AccuWeather deliver a portfolio of customized products and services to media, business, government, and institutions, and inform millions of visitors worldwide through the free AccuWeather.com website. AccuWeather also provides content onto more than 200,000 third-party Internet sites, including CNN Interactive and ABC's owned and operated stations, The Washington Post and The New York Times. Visit www.accuweather.com for more information.
AccuWeather, the global leader in weather information and digital media, today announced additional verification information on the company’s leadership in providing weather information and updates with Superior Accuracy(tm).
AccuWeather, the global leader in weather information and digital media, and Withings, the leader in the connected health revolution, today announced the findings of a new study correlating AccuWeather's comprehensive global weather data with Superior Accuracy(tm) and activity levels from Withings' activity trackers.
With 45 days until the big holiday, AccuWeather, the global leader in weather information and digital media, today announced that AccuWeather’s proprietary 45-Day Forecast is available at AccuWeather.com web and mobile sites to provide detailed, localized forecasts with Superior Accuracy for holiday planning. AccuWeather’s 45-Day Forecast allows users to view weather forecast information and updates further out than any other free weather source, leading all the way to December 25th.
AccuWeather, Inc., the global leader in weather information and digital media, today announced the launch of the new AccuWeather app for iPhone, iPad and iPod touch, that’s exclusively available for iOS users. For a third year in a row, AccuWeather was recognized by the Academy of Interactive and Visual Arts (AIVA) with digital awards, including a 2015 Gold award for the iOS app.
AccuWeather, Inc., the global leader in weather information and digital media, today announced that AccuWeather Founder, President, and Chairman Dr. Joel N. Myers will serve as the featured speaker for the next Chamber of Business & Industry of Centre County (CBICC) membership luncheon event. His presentation, titled “Responding to Transformational Change”, will take place on November 16 from noon to 1:15 PM at the Ramada Conference Center in State College, Pa.
As Halloween approaches, rain looms for part of the U.S. from the Deep South to the Great Lakes, threatening unwanted surprises for Halloween parades and trick-or-treating through the holiday. Prepared parents, goblins, and ghouls are including AccuWeather MinuteCast® as part of this year’s trick-or-treat and parade preparedness kits to stay safe and keep costumes dry, a top-tech must-have to stay informed on hyper-local Halloween weather updates with Superior Accuracy. MinuteCast is exclusively available on AccuWeather’s award-winning mobile apps and AccuWeather.com web and mobile sites, free to all users.
AccuWeather, the global leader in weather information and digital media, today announced the Academy of Interactive and Visual Arts (AIVA), for the third year in a row, has recognized AccuWeather with digital awards -- a Gold award for the AccuWeather iOS app and Silver award for the AccuWeather Android app. The W3 Awards are the most recent among numerous accolades that recognize AccuWeather's success in providing the best weather app experience with Superior Accuracy, personalizing the weather so people can improve their lives.
AccuWeather, the global leader in weather information and weather-driven intelligence for enterprises, has introduced its proprietary Data Driven Decisions (D3) Analytics division for enterprises, turning hyper local weather data and forecasts with Superior Accuracy into customized, actionable business intelligence that drives organizational performance. D3 Analytics aggregates and analyzes over 300 different weather factors with consumer behavior and sales data, focusing on clients’ specific sales objectives and priorities to provide a scientific, predictive basis for key business decisions that impact profitability.
AccuWeather, the global leader in weather information and digital media, today announced veteran on-air personality, senior meteorologist, and executive producer Bernie Rayno has been promoted to Chief Video Meteorologist. In his new position, Rayno will apply his long-standing expertise in meteorology and broadcasting to guide AccuWeather Network content. In his 25-year tenure with AccuWeather, Bernie has been a driving force for AccuWeather's on-air, web, and mobile weather videos and a leader on the new and rapidly growing AccuWeather Network.
AccuWeather, Inc., the global leader in weather information and digital media and one of the world’s leading digital publishers, announced it has appointed Karen Bressner as Head of Digital Advertising Sales. Based in New York City and reporting directly to the Global Chief Revenue Officer, Marie Svet, Karen brings to AccuWeather years of experience successfully developing strategies and managing teams across traditional and digital media.