Joe Bastardi's Hurricane Forecast - Most Accurate for 2007

November 29, 2007; 9:17 AM
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Veteran Hurricane Forecaster Also Gave Most Timely Notice of Individual Storms

(State College, PA - November 29, 2007) - As the official Hurricane Season ends on November 30, the 2007 Hurricane Season Forecast issued by Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi in May has proven, in side-by-side comparisons, to be the most accurate. Throughout the season, Bastardi was also often the first to give warning of individual storms.

As part of the 2007 hurricane season forecast, Bastardi and his team at predicted "13 or 14 total storms in the Atlantic Basin, including three intense hurricanes of Category 3 or greater." In contrast, the government weather service forecast called for 13 to 17 named storms and between three and five intense storms. Two other private forecasters' predictions were too high, calling for 15 and 17 named storms respectively and four to five intense storms. In actuality, there were 14 storms and two intense storms during the 2007 season, both numbers almost exactly what was predicted by Bastardi and his team more than six months earlier.

The team excelled again in this season at giving timely warning. "What really counts with hurricane forecasts is the impact they have on people's ability to protect their business and family interests and safety," Bastardi said. "In the Gulf, we accurately forecast Barry, Erin, and Humberto well in advance of anyone else. The extra time allowed citizens, public safety officials and businesses to prepare for the storm."

Hurricane Humberto provides an example of the advanced warning provided. Bastardi and his team began warning of the storm that would later become Hurricane Humberto as early as September 7th, four days before the National Hurricane Center (NHC) first acknowledged weather conditions conducive for the development of the storm. On September 12, Bastardi declared that the storm would become a hurricane, although at that point the NHC had not yet even issued a tropical storm warning. Humberto made landfall September 13 as a strong Category 1 hurricane, causing one death and $50 million in property damage.

Bastardi's September 11 advisory had predicted that the rapidly intensifying storm would "come as a surprise" to other forecasters, and indeed this was the case. On the day of landfall, one NHC forecaster said, "It would be nice to know someday why this happened."

Joe Bastardi's complete 2007 Hurricane Season Wrap-Up, extended winter forecast, written discussions, video postings and forecast maps, are available to his Energy Pro and Private Client Services through


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