What's the Probability the Gulf Oil Spill Will Impact Your Coastal Spot?
Jul 10, 2010; 1:29 AM ET
A surfer watches an oily wave approach as he waits to catch a ride in Destin, Fla., Monday, June 28, 2010. Tourism on the Gulf coast is way off, with some hotels and condominium owners saying their business is down by 50 percent. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)
As the oil continues to impact the Gulf of Mexico, many have asked: what's the chance the oil will have some impact on my coastal spot?
AccuWeather.com experts have analyzed ocean currents, computer models and consulted various scientists to determine the probability of oil impacting specific locations along the Gulf and East Coasts.
The AccuWeather.com forecast is believed to be the first to incorporate weather factors to come up with an all-inclusive probability percentage for those locations.
Below is a table that provides the probability of oil reaching specific locations. We will continue to make updates to the table as weather conditions and oil containment efforts develop.
What do the probabilities mean?
For example, at Galveston Island, Texas during the next 30 days, there is a 60% chance of oil impacting coastal areas within that time period.
Over the next 120 days, there is a 80% chance of impact.
Please note, while the probabilities do take into account the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Forecast, the probabilities can change dramatically based on the strength and path of a hurricane moving through the Gulf of Mexico.
All numbers as of Friday, July 9.
| Location | 7 Days | 30 Days | 60 Days | 90 Days | 120 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Isle, La. | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Gulfport, Miss. | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Mobile Bay, Ala. | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Florida Coast | |||||
| Pensacola, Fla. | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Tampa, Fla. | 0% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 15% |
| Key West, Fla. | 0% | 2% | 5% | 15% | 20% |
| Miami Beach, Fla. | 0% | 1% | 5% | 10% | 15% |
| Daytona Beach, Fla. | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% |
| Jacksonville, Fla. | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% |
| East Coast | |||||
| Charleston, S.C. | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Myrtle Beach, S.C. | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Cape Hatteras, N.C. | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% |
| Norfolk, Va. | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% |
| Ocean City, Md. | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Atlantic City, N.J. | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Montauk Long Island, N.Y. | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Cape Cod, Mass. | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Texas and Mexico Coast | |||||
| Port Arthur, Texas | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% |
| Galveston Island, Texas | 60% | 60% | 70% | 70% | 80% |
| Corpus Christi, Texas | 5% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Brownsville, Texas | 0% | 5% | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Cancun, Mexico | 0% | 4% | 8% | 10% | 12% |
Related to the Story:
Weather Could Determine When MZ-3A Airship Arrives in Gulf
Tropical Depression 2 Aims to Cause Serious Floding
Despite Choppy Seas, Oil Spill Cleanup Ongoing in Gulf
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Daily U.S. Extremes
past 24 hours
| Extreme | Location | |
|---|---|---|
| High | 113° | Death Valley, CA |
| Low | 30° | Bellemont, AZ |
| Precip | 9.70" | Miami, FL |
WeatherWhys®
A large, horrific tornado struck the city of Joplin, Mo., last year on this date. The twister cut a deadly path across the south side of the city, leaving over 159 dead and at least 1,150 injured. The Joplin tornado currently ranks as the 7th deadliest tornado in U.S. history.
This Day In Weather History
New Hampshire (1814)
A tornado crossed Merrimac, Litchfield, Londonderry and North Chester. The same storm produced hailstones that had an 11-inch circumference and weighed 1/2 pound.
Northeast (1989)
More rain in an already wet month. Monthly totals topped 11 inches at New York City, 9 inches at Bridgeport, Conn., and 8 inches at Baltimore (all three totals set records for May).
Rough Weather
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