Watching Gulf for Slow Tropical Development

By , Senior Meteorologist
May 30, 2013; 5:02 AM ET
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There is a chance that a broad area of moisture near Central America leads to modest tropical development next week in the vicinity of Yucatan, Mexico.

A broad area of disturbed weather was enhanced showers and thunderstorms over Central America this week.

The moisture converged on the Pacific side of the region to form Barbara. That system was dissipating along the Mexico coastline over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. However, drenching rainfall and a risk of flooding continues in that area to end the week.

Barbara reached hurricane strength before making landfall along the south coast of Mexico, Thursday, May 29, 2013.

There is some indication that an area of low pressure could slowly brew on the Atlantic side, in the swath from the northwest Caribbean to the southern Gulf of Mexico during the first full week of June.

June 1 marks the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season.

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Development next week could be limited due to an expected southward dip in steering-level winds over the Gulf of Mexico.

These winds would tend to disrupt the vertical structure of any weak system attempting to brew in the region or could keep such a system from becoming fully tropical. meteorologists will continue to monitor this area of the tropics closely over the next several weeks as it is generally a favored area for development early in the season.

What is likely to happen in the area from Central America, the neighboring eastern Pacific, western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico over the next week is continued flare-ups of showers and thunderstorms. The repeating downpours will raise the risk of flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides.

It is possible that drenching rain and gusty thunderstorms, organized or not by tropical low pressure, could push northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico region later next week.

This story was first published on Monday, May 27, 2013, and has been updated.


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