Watching for Nicole along the US East Coast
Senior Meteorologist Henry Margusity has the latest on the situation along the Atlantic Seaboard this week.
While Matthew plowed westward through Central America over the weekend, the next tropical system waiting on deck, Nicole, is likely to move northward toward the U.S.
An area of showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean is likely to become the next system of concern in the Atlantic Basin. It should develop today.
The area was in the early stages of organization Tuesday morning.
The northwestern Caribbean lies in the heart of AccuWeather.com Hurricane Expert Joe Bastardi's concern area through October.
A developing southerly steering flow over eastern North America would guide that system northward across Cuba and into Florida at midweek then northward along the rest of the Atlantic Seaboard during the second half of the week.
A tropical system may cross the Florida Peninsula at midweek.
Cities from Miami to Jacksonville, Raleigh, Richmond, Washington, D.C., New York City and Boston may be affected with a blast of heavy rain from south to north with the on-deck tropical system.
Along the Atlantic Seaboard, a strong flow of air, known as wind shear, will likely limit the strength of such a system. As a result, it may be never any stronger than a tropical storm.
Here is a look at the projected path of "Nicole" later in the week.
However, even a mere tropical storm can produce excessive rainfall and locally gusty winds.
Even as one non-tropical system brings beneficial rain to a large part of the Atlantic Seaboard to start the week, a tropical system could turn initial beneficial rain into major travel and baseball game disruptions and flooding problems as September comes to a close and "Troptober" begins.
Additional tropical systems originating from the same area could threaten all or part of the Atlantic Seaboard well into the new month.
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People need to pay close attention to the UV index during this time of year. On a sunny day late in the spring and into the summer, the UV is usually at least an 8, which is very high. Readings over 11 are considered extreme values in which only 10 minutes of full exposure to the sun will produce a sunburn.
This Day In Weather History
New Hampshire (1814)
A tornado crossed Merrimac, Litchfield, Londonderry and North Chester. The same storm produced hailstones that had an 11-inch circumference and weighed 1/2 pound.
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More rain in an already wet month. Monthly totals topped 11 inches at New York City, 9 inches at Bridgeport, Conn., and 8 inches at Baltimore (all three totals set records for May).
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