Watching for New Tropical Development in the Caribbean
AccuWeather.com meteorologists are monitoring the potential for new tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean, which may impact a portion of the Gulf Coast by the middle part of this week.
The remnants of Matthew continue to meander across southeastern Mexico. This feature will continue to bring heavy rain and breezy conditions from parts of Guatemala through southern Mexico through early this week.
A separate feature currently producing widespread showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean will track slowly northward through early this week. The feature will be in an area favorable for tropical development, as sea surface temperatures are running between 1 and 2 degrees Celsius above normal.
Along with the warm waters, light winds aloft will promote very slow movement of this feature, which will allow gradual tropical development to occur.
Long-range forecast models show that a potential tropical storm or hurricane, which would be named Nicole, could track northward during the middle to latter part of next week toward the Gulf Coast region.
According to AccuWeather.com Hurricane Expert Joe Bastardi, "Because of the pattern, pressure falls will develop across the western Caribbean Sunday through Tuesday then eventually take over as the main circulation. By Wednesday, we should have a new tropical cyclone."
The storm would be steered between two areas of high pressure, one centered over the Intermountain West and another centered over the central and eastern Atlantic. Depending on the location of the high pressure systems, this storm could take a northward track toward the Gulf Coast.
Computer models have been fairly consistent in directing a tropical cyclone toward Florida in particular.
Tropical moisture associated with this potential feature may be drawn even farther northward this week, bringing another round of heavy rain to portions of the Southeast.
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Daily U.S. Extremes
past 24 hours
| Extreme | Location | |
|---|---|---|
| High | 100° | Wink, TX |
| Low | 29° | Mullan Pass, ID |
| Precip | 1.17" | Chapel Hill, NC |
WeatherWhys®
People need to pay close attention to the UV index during this time of year. On a sunny day late in the spring and into the summer, the UV is usually at least an 8, which is very high. Readings over 11 are considered extreme values in which only 10 minutes of full exposure to the sun will produce a sunburn.
This Day In Weather History
New Hampshire (1814)
A tornado crossed Merrimac, Litchfield, Londonderry and North Chester. The same storm produced hailstones that had an 11-inch circumference and weighed 1/2 pound.
Northeast (1989)
More rain in an already wet month. Monthly totals topped 11 inches at New York City, 9 inches at Bridgeport, Conn., and 8 inches at Baltimore (all three totals set records for May).
Rough Weather
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