Tropics Trying to Come Alive South of Mexico

June 12, 2012; 3:25 PM ET
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After a lull in activity, the tropics are trying to once again come alive south of Mexico.

The area of low pressure being monitored by the Hurricane Center is located about 650 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.

The low is showing signs that it is attempting to organize into a tropical depression as it churns over the warm waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean.

However, time and disruptive wind shear (strong winds above the surface) are working against the low.

Atlantic Basin: Three More Tropical Systems Forecast to Make Landfall
2012 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season: More Storms for Mexico

Since the wind shear is not strong enough to totally rip apart the low, the window of opportunity is still open for the low to overcome the wind shear and develop into a tropical depression.

That window will close Monday as the wind shear increases. Even if a depression takes shape tonight or early Monday, the strengthening wind shear will quickly bring out the depression's demise.

Regardless of whether or not a depression forms, the low is churning westward over the open waters of the eastern Pacific with only shipping interests in its path.

The formation of a depression in the eastern Pacific would be the first organized tropical system since Hurricane Bud roamed the waters off the southern Mexican coast in late May.

The Atlantic Basin, meanwhile, remains free of tropical systems with strong wind shear also in place.


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