It has been nearly a month since Tropical Storm Debby churned in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, bringing heavy and beneficial rains to parts of Florida. But since the end of June, the overall weather pattern across the Atlantic Tropical Basin has been considerably quiet.
While AccuWeather.com meteorologists were correct in assuming the tropics would be quiet throughout the weekend, they are monitoring a strong tropical disturbance for possible development early this week.
According to Tropical Weather Expert Dan Kottlowski, "The system is a bit farther south and is the strongest of the disturbances thus far this season originating from Africa."
Because the storm is located farther south than other disturbances which have originated off the coast of Africa this season, it has been slightly removed from the large area of dry and dusty air which is in place across the Atlantic from the African coast to the eastern Caribbean. This air has limited the development of previous waves.
According to Kottlowski, "The dust acts to limit thunderstorm development. Persistent thunderstorms help create lower pressure which then can lead to tropical development."
This system interacted with the dusty and dry air late last week which prohibited development, but that may change heading early this week.
The wave will track across the middle of the Lesser Antilles today and into the northern Caribbean by the middle of the week. This will bring a period of showers and gusty winds to portions of the Caribbean islands early this week.
Beyond the early part of the week, there remains a bit of uncertainty with the track of the storm.
There are two different scenarios after the storm moves into the eastern Caribbean, it will either track due west into the central and western Caribbean or to the northwest.
"A more northward track would favor development while a due west track would probably keep the system disorganized," Kottlowski added.
Keep checking back with the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center through early next week with the latest thinking on the development of this wave.
A brief warmup is in store for the Pittsburgh area this weekend before cooler weather makes a return for the start of the new week.
A brief warmup is in store for the Cleveland area this weekend before cooler weather makes a return for the start of the new week.
Sunny skies will continue to bathe the Los Angeles area.
Sunny skies will bathe the Bay Area for the new week.
Well-above normal temperatures will highlight the weekend in Seattle.
Off-and-on showers and thunderstorms will be in the picture for the coming week in Dallas.
Denver, CO ()
4-9" of heavy wet snow fell, downing tree limbs and causing power outages.
Rangely, CO ()
Large hail (some 4" in diameter) caused $ million in damages to cars, trucks, and buildings.
Centre County, PA (1792)
Quote from the diary of William Colbert, a Methodist Circuit Rider up in Centre County: "A very cold morning. It was surprising to see so much snow on the ground at this season of the year. The limbs of the peach trees broke, and large limbs of the oaks broke down, and saplings bent across the road. It began to snow last night before we went to bed. I came out of my way by Lamb's to Phillip Antes."