It has been nearly a month since Tropical Storm Debby churned in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, bringing heavy and beneficial rains to parts of Florida. But since the end of June, the overall weather pattern across the Atlantic Tropical Basin has been considerably quiet.
While AccuWeather.com meteorologists were correct in assuming the tropics would be quiet throughout the weekend, they are monitoring a strong tropical disturbance for possible development early this week.
According to Tropical Weather Expert Dan Kottlowski, "The system is a bit farther south and is the strongest of the disturbances thus far this season originating from Africa."
Because the storm is located farther south than other disturbances which have originated off the coast of Africa this season, it has been slightly removed from the large area of dry and dusty air which is in place across the Atlantic from the African coast to the eastern Caribbean. This air has limited the development of previous waves.
According to Kottlowski, "The dust acts to limit thunderstorm development. Persistent thunderstorms help create lower pressure which then can lead to tropical development."
This system interacted with the dusty and dry air late last week which prohibited development, but that may change heading early this week.
The wave will track across the middle of the Lesser Antilles today and into the northern Caribbean by the middle of the week. This will bring a period of showers and gusty winds to portions of the Caribbean islands early this week.
Beyond the early part of the week, there remains a bit of uncertainty with the track of the storm.
There are two different scenarios after the storm moves into the eastern Caribbean, it will either track due west into the central and western Caribbean or to the northwest.
"A more northward track would favor development while a due west track would probably keep the system disorganized," Kottlowski added.
Keep checking back with the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center through early next week with the latest thinking on the development of this wave.
While waters will be slow to recede across flood-ravaged South Carolina, a stretch of dry weather will provide favorable conditions for cleanup efforts across the region.
Joaquin remains on track to make Europe its final destination with a part of the British Isles and western Europe first facing potential impacts this weekend.
Despite Tropical Storm Oho not making landfall across Hawaii, localized downpours and rough surf will rattle the islands into late week.
A storm system producing localized flash flooding and gusty thunderstorms will progress eastward across the Southwest states through the middle of the week.
In lieu of direct impact from Hurricane Joaquin, what led to historic rainfall in the Carolinas this past weekend?
Some U.S. cities are at a higher risk than others to experience the impacts of a hurricane in any given year.
Punta Rassa, FL (near Ft. Myers) (1873)
Hurricane destroyed town; 14-foot tide.
Ucluelet Brynnor Mines, Canada (1967)
Highest daily total of rainfall ever for Canada -- 19.61 inches in 24 hours.
Rotterdam, Netherlands (1981)
An F-28 airliner crashed, killing all aboard after apparently traversing a tornado shortly after take-off.