There are some indications that the tropics may once again come alive next week in the Atlantic.
Carlotta has formed in the eastern Pacific.
There is warm water and generally weak winds over the eastern Pacific, both favorable conditions for further strengthening before Carlotta hits Mexico between Barra De Tonala and Punta Maldonado.
"This large area of low pressure spanning the southwest Gulf of Mexico to the northwest Caribbean will need to be monitored next week for tropical development," Kottlowski said.
While high wind shear and dust from Africa are currently suppressing any tropical activity in the Atlantic, conditions will become more favorable for a potential "window of development" by later next week.
Strong wind shear, which is the rapid change of wind speed or direction with altitude, causes building clouds to be tilted, restricting vertical development. Unless a tropical system has a vertically oriented core, its ability to develop is diminished.
Dust is like a filter, it reduces the amount of heating necessary for tropical systems develop. It is also a sign of dry air from the deserts of Africa, which would also act as an inhibiting factor for storms.
"Strong wind shear is in place across the Gulf and Atlantic, but shear is expected to drop off late next week," AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said.
"#Beryl liked our dock so much, she decided to take part as a souvenir. #JaxWX pic.twitter.com/3rCNGSgf" tweeted Rand M. after Beryl struck Memorial Day weekend.
Whether the system develops tropically or not, heavy rain and resultant flash flooding are a threat for central America and the Yucatan Peninsula as the system remains nearly stationary for the balance of next week.
Tropical moisture will also promote downpours across Cuba and the Bahamas.
There is a lot of uncertainty as to whether a system develops tropically or not, exactly where it forms and where it heads next.
Keep checking back with AccuWeather.com later this week and over the weekend as details become clearer.
Severe thunderstorms with the risk of a few tornadoes will advance eastward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest into Friday.
A dangerous outbreak of severe storms will strike the northern High Plains and Canadian Prairies on Wednesday.
Join us on Thursday for AccuWeather LIVE as we will discuss the debate of climate change and hurricane frequency and the top five things you need to know about summer weather.
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