Hurricane Paul Set to Graze Mexico

October 16, 2012; 7:00 AM ET
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Hurricane Paul has formed out of a mass of moisture in the eastern Pacific and is set to bring significant impacts to Baja California.

Currently a hurricane, Paul is on a collision course with the Baja Peninsula of Mexico. Paul was a Category 3 Major Hurricane for a short period overnight, however the storm recently weakened back down to a Category 2.

Eventually Paul will turn back out to sea, however not before bringing significant impacts to the Baja Peninsula, including a potential landfall. Current model forecasts bring the center of Paul onshore in the northern portions of the Mexican State of Baja California Sur.

While currently a Category 2 hurricane, the storm is expected to weaken before making landfall due to cool ocean temperatures and increasing wind shear. Paul is currently expected to make landfall as either a category 1 hurricane, or a strong tropical storm

Significant rainfall is already occurring across the Baja Peninsula as of early Tuesday. Flash flooding will be a major concern to the area due to the amount of rainfall possible.

Eventually Paul will take a turn to the northwest, as high pressure over the Southwestern United States will prevent the system from continuing to the Northeast. Once out over the open Pacific, Paul will continue to weaken before eventually dissipating.

While bringing major impacts to the Baja Peninsula and northwestern Mexico, the moisture from Paul is not expected to bring major impacts to the southwestern U.S. Moisture from Paul will however contribute to a front pushing south across Texas, helping to spark showers and thunderstorms across the region Tuesday.

Thumbnail and header satellite image of Hurricane Paul provided by the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies

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