AccuWeather.com

By Meghan Evans, Meteorologist

Sep 6, 2010; 7:30 AM ET

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After forming into the 10th tropical depression late on Sunday over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, the tropical system has strengthened further into Tropical Storm Hermine. The storm will spread potentially flooding rainfall and gusty winds into northeastern Mexico and southern Texas.

The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center has the latest statistics on Tropical Storm Hermine.

This satellite image shows Tropical Storm Hermine churning over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico early Monday morning.

Strengthening Factors and Path

The tropical storm is churning over warm water over the Gulf in an environment with weak wind shear. Both of these factors favor further strengthening; however, its proximity to land may prevent it from becoming a strong tropical storm.

Whether it strengthens further or not, the tropical storm will turn more to the northwest later today into tonight. Landfall is expected in northeastern Mexico, most likely along the central coast of the state of Tamaulipas, tonight.

The landfall will not be far from where Hurricane Alex roared onshore on June 30, 2010.

After making landfall, weakening will occur rapidly as the storm encounters friction over land. The higher terrain of northeastern Mexico will add to the quick weakening of the tropical system.

Through midweek, the weakening tropical system should continue to track northwestward into central Texas.

Anticipated Impacts in Mexico, Southern Texas

Flash flooding is likely to result from Hermine's torrential rainfall and will likely be the biggest impact of the storm.

Up to 4-8 inches of rain will deluge portions of northeastern Mexico and deep southern Texas over the next several days. Locally higher amounts of up to a foot may pour down, especially over the higher terrain of northeastern Mexico.

By Tuesday morning, many cities and towns may already be inundated by 2 to 4 inches of rain in this zone.

The threat for deadly mudslides also exists with the greatest threat again lying in the mountainous region of northern Mexico.

The waters of the Rio Grande River continue to run high, and torrential rainfall from the storm may contribute to renewed flooding concerns. Major flooding of the river occurred when Alex tore through the region earlier this season.

Rainfall amounts in southern Texas and northeastern Mexico have been above normal this summer.

McAllen, Texas, has received 235 percent the normal rainfall since June 1, while Brownsville, Texas, has received about 165 percent of the normal rainfall since June 1.

Tropical storm-force winds are expected to lash northeastern Mexico by tonight.

The strong winds will likely down trees, cut power and cause structural damage to homes and businesses in the storms path. Windows may be shattered, sending glass flying through the air.

While winds will not be as high in southern Texas, there could be gusts past 35 mph.

Tornadoes could also be spawned as the storm makes landfall in northeastern Mexico. The rotation of the storm adds to a twisting motion in the atmosphere that can help produce tornado-spawning thunderstorms. The main threat for twisters will be to the north of the point of landfall, including coastal areas of southern Texas.

It is important to keep in mind that a wobble in the storm's track could shift where the bulls-eye of rain and wind hits.

Related to the Story:

2010 Hurricane Center

South Central Radar

South Central Satellite

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