AccuWeather.com meteorologists are not overly concerned about any strong tropical system in the Gulf in the near future. However, there is some room for a weak low pressure area to form.
Given the increasing amount of moisture that will be available next week, any system that organizes that moisture could unload very heavy rainfall in some areas.
Even without any organized tropical low rolling onshore, there is the potential for several inches of rain to fall over a seven- to 10-day stretch in the upcoming weather pattern in some locales.
If a tropical low becomes involved, this sort of rainfall could occur in as many hours.
The splitting of surface high pressure that has dominated the weather over the Gulf of Mexico much of the spring would open the door to the tropics.
This process has already begun in the form of big downpours over parts of Texas.
Take away this dry air source and throw in a light southeasterly flow of moisture all the way from the Caribbean and you have some reason to believe one or more weak low pressure areas may form forward of this weekend somewhere in the western Gulf.
There is uncertainty as to whether or not the high will remain split over the Gulf next week..
According to Tropical Weather Expert Dan Kottlowski, "Our tools are suggesting that less wind shear will develop over the Atlantic Basin by the end of June into early July."
"When wind shear (strong winds aloft) and dry air are present, it is disruptive for tropical storm formation," Kottlowski said.
Much of the Gulf Coast region has been suffering through moderate to exceptional drought since early in the spring.
As a result, a weak tropical system would not necessarily be a bad thing, as long as it did not sit over an area and unload a foot of rain in a couple of days.
"We are being cautious about the scenario portrayed by some computer models. They tried this before recently in the Caribbean," Kottlowski added.
"Eventually, due to the warm water and decreasing shear we will get a tropical low to form. It is more a question of when," Kottlowski said in closing.
Matthew has become a hurricane in the Caribbean and may approach the U.S. during next week.
It will feel like an extended winter for those living from the northern Plains to the eastern U.S., as cold and snowy conditions last longer than normal.
Hurricane Matthew will threaten the western and central Caribbean with flooding rain, damaging winds and an inundating storm surge early next week.
Persistent downpours will raise the flood risk in part of the mid-Atlantic into Friday night, while rain will spread over the balance of the northeastern United States into the weekend.
Millions of people across the U.S. could be exposed to drinking water contaminated with chemicals from firefighting foam, according to a recent study.
The final day of September will bring a rare lunar event that hasn’t occurred since March of 2014, a Black Moon.
U.S./Quebec border (1835)
Heavy snow; Hatley, P.Q. received 10 inches. Kelkenny, NH had 6 inches.
San Diego, CA (1970)
Strong Santa Ana winds create fire disaster in interior parts of county (September 25 to 30); 500,000 acres burned.
Lander, NY (1982)
15.4 inches of of snow (29th-30th). Total of 32.9 inches for month (Sept. record).