A tropical system is trying to take shape off the coastline of western Mexico over the next few days. Though this system will likely be slow to develop, rainfall could reach southwest Mexico by this weekend if it does develop.
Currently, a large disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms continues to drift northwest across the open eastern Pacific ocean.
The combination of warm ocean waters and moderate wind shear may allow for slow development through the middle of the week.
While an initial cluster of showers and thunderstorms will likely continue westward with no development, a second cluster is expected to become better organized during the mid to late week south of Mexico.
AccuWeather.com meteorologist Andy Mussoline says "We will have to keep a close eye for tropical development later this week. There is plenty of warm water to help spur development, but the cluster of showers and thunderstorms we are monitoring will battle wind shear through the week."
There are two possible tracks for this potential storm. We could see it move slowly off to the west and remain in the waters of the open Pacific Ocean. If this occurs, we may see a named storm, but we are not likely to see this affect any land as it eventually weakens over the ocean.
Satellite from Wednesday morning of the large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms south of Mexico, courtesy of NOAA
Another possible track would take the potential tropical system off to the north toward the Mexico coastline by Sunday. If this occurs, we could see some heavy rainfall over southern Mexico which may produce flooding and mudslides.
This potential tropical system would likely remain in a weakened state if it does approach Mexico; therefore, AccuWeather.com meteorologists are not expecting damaging winds or a large storm surge for the coast of Mexico at this time.
No matter whether or not this develops, this is just the beginning of tropical season for the Eastern Pacific as the season stretches from May 15 through Nov. 15. If this potential tropical system were to reach tropical storm strength, it would be named Amanda.
AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Alan Reppert contributed to this story.
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