Tropical Depression 16 Forms, May Soon be Nicole
The path of soon-to-be Nicole.
The area of showers and thunderstorms in the Caribbean that the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center has been concerned about for days has become the Atlantic's 16th tropical depression.
The system has developed over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean with favorable conditions allowing an area of low pressure to become better organized.
The tropical depression has a good chance at becoming Tropical Storm Nicole over the next 48 hours.
The system is first expected to impact Cuba then to take aim at Florida and the U.S. East Coast this week.
The latest statistics on T.D. 16 can be found at the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center.
The system could continue to strengthen while over warm water in an environment with little wind shear during the next 24 hours.
T.D. 16 will then bring eastern and central Cuba heavy rain, tropical storm-force winds and battering surf, especially along the south-central shore, late tonight into Wednesday morning.
Four to 8 inches could soak central parts of Cuba with locally higher amounts over the mountains.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides can result from upwards of 6 inches of rain at the local level.
The higher terrain of Cuba could cause the system to lose strength before it moves back over the open water of the Straits of Florida on Wednesday.
Southern and central Florida and the Bahamas are in line for hefty rainfall, especially later Wednesday, that may also result in flash flooding.
High winds will slam the east coast of Florida, perhaps causing localized damage and coastal flooding.
The system will then move on to impact much of the East Coast during the latter part of this week with potentially flooding rainfall, high winds, rough surf and dangerous rip currents.
The strength and the exact track of the storm as it skirts the Eastern Seaboard are still far from set in stone.
The system will be battling strong wind shear by the time it reaches the East Coast of the U.S., and this could prevent it from strengthening or even maintaining tropical storm strength.
Even if the system is just a remnant low by the time it reaches the East Coast, heavy rainfall and flooding will be the major concern.
However, gusty winds and beach erosion could become serious problems as well.
A storm system lashing the East early this week will leave the East more vulnerable to flooding. Some parts of eastern North Carolina have been deluged by more than 10 inches of rain.
Residents and business interests of Florida, the Bahamas and the East Coast should keep checking back with AccuWeather.com for updates on T.D. 16 destined to become Tropical Storm Nicole.
Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski contributed to the content of this story.
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