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    Tropical Cyclone Threat to Southern Japan

    August 5, 2010; 6:45 AM ET
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    AccuWeather.com satellite imagery of the cyclone threat to Japan on Thursday, Aug. 5, 2010.

    The atmospheric setting of the tropical western Pacific Ocean is becoming increasingly favorable for spinning up a tropical storm that could threaten southern Japan early next week.

    As of Thursday, the makings for an organized tropical system took the form of widespread showers and thunderstorms over the southern Philippines Sea far to the east of the Philippines.

    Movement of this broad swath of disturbed weather will be towards the north and northwest and, by later Saturday, a tropical depression, even a named tropical storm, could be under way.

    Although the piled-up moisture necessary to form the core of a would-be tropical cyclone has already gathered in the area in question, the upper atmosphere has thus far stayed unfavorable for tropical cyclone development. An expected shift to a more favorable, "less shearing" in the words of tropical storm forecasters, environment is the basis for the tropical cyclone threat for southwestern Japan.

    In the event that the upper wind flow becomes favorable to the fullest extent, a typhoon, a tropical cyclone of hurricane strength, would wrap up over waters south of southwestern Japan by next Tuesday.

    Less-than-optimal atmospheric conditions could still bring a rain-laden tropical storm or depression landfalling to southwestern Japan early next week.

    At this time, the most likely scenario would be the latter, in which torrential, flooding rain would pose the greatest weather threat to life and property.

    Related to the Story:

    AccuWeather.com 2010 Hurricane Center

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