Tropical Cyclone Possibility on the Arabian Sea

June 8, 2011; 12:00 PM ET
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" least some of our tools suggest that it could consolidate into a significant tropical low."

A broad area of disturbed weather over the Arabian Sea could give rise to a tropical cyclone by the end of the week.

On Wednesday, satellite pictures of the Arabian Sea showed a large swath of clouds, some having strong thunderstorms, over the open Arabian Sea between western India and Oman, in eastern Arabia.

Satellite image of Arabian Sea shows disturbed weather as of 1300 UTC Wednesday, June 8 (credit: India Meteorology Department).

This tropical weather system has remained loosely organized since late last week, even though at least some of our tools suggest that it could consolidate into a significant tropical low.

An area to watch is a few hundred miles west of Mumbai, India, within 36 to 48 hours.

If a cyclone fails to form, instead, typically unsettled weather that often marks the onset of the rainy South West Monsoon on the Indian Subcontinent is likely.

This would imply continued northward spread of showers and thunderstorms, some with torrential bursts of rain, across much of central and northeastern India during the next several days.

Strong tropical cyclones have sometimes arisen over the Arabian Sea during early June, Super Cyclonic Storm Gonu of 2007 being the ultimate example.

Signs as of Wednesday were still unclear as to whether the present disturbed area will grow into a potentially destructive storm.


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