Following the development of Tropical Storm Fernand, the scale is likely to tip in favor of multiple tropical systems within the next few weeks.
According to Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, "From a climatological standpoint, the flow of dry air over the [tropical Atlantic] now is likely to shrink in size and weaken moving into September."
A few weeks from now, it is very possible there will be multiple active tropical storms and/or hurricanes at the same time with warm waters, moist surface air and diminishing disruptive winds each playing a role.
Since a large part of the Southeast United States has been so wet this summer, there is an elevated risk for inland flooding in this area, should a tropical storm or hurricane make landfall in the region.
In the short term, a low in the Bay of Campeche has organized into Tropical Storm Fernand. The storm will quickly move into eastern Mexico Sunday night, accompanied by flooding rain.
While the tropical storm will remain to the south, drenching showers and thunderstorms from another disturbance will continue to drench parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast through Monday.
The tropical Atlantic is past due for a hurricane.
"Into this week, overall barometric pressure is forecast to rise over the tropical Atlantic, which will tend to deter rapid development," Kottlowski added.
Beyond this week, once the pressure starts to fall, we may have multiple other troublemakers to monitor.
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After a warm start to the week, some clouds and cooler temperatures will move into the area at midweek.
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