Hot and Dry Summer Dries Out Much of the US
Next Threat on the Horizon May Be Hurricane Season
The La Nina that has driven the extreme weather since winter is over, but the lingering effects mean no summer for the Great Lakes, drought conditions expanding out of the southern Plains, and flooding expanding into the Midwest from the Mississippi Valley.
The weather pattern that produced a wild winter for the Northeast and parts of the Midwest, then extreme flooding and devastating killer tornadoes this spring, is changing to one that may not be as volatile this summer. However, given the national economic impacts of the tornadoes and floods this spring, all it would take is one hit by a major hurricane to stress the economy even more.
Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok, leader of the AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team, said a change in the weather pattern means areas of the lower Mississippi Valley hit by flooding will have hot, drier weather this summer, which could help clear standing water and dry saturated ground. However, we will need to keep a careful eye on the tropics as late-season tropical storms could threaten the Gulf and/or East Coast states.
Great Lakes / Ohio Valley / Midwest
Summer Brings Cool, Wet Conditions
The end of the La Nina pattern will threaten to make this area a region "without a summer." Repeated intrusions of cool air from Canada along with showers and thunderstorms will keep temperatures below normal in many areas. Temperatures topping 90 F may be rare.
The severe weather that has plagued the South this spring will shift northward. Frequent bouts of thunderstorms could mean numerous instances of flooding, hail and wind damage, even tornadoes. While we probably had the most extreme tornado activity of 2011 during April and May, the summer still has potential to bring a few moderate outbreaks of tornadoes.
Flooding may be the biggest concern this summer, as already-soggy ground can handle only so much heavy rain.
Wet Spring Gives Way to Nicer Summer Weather
The Northeast has been frequently cloudy and damp this spring, but that is forecast to change this summer. While not as hot as it was last year, it will become warmer and more humid this summer with temperatures close to long-term averages. That means in major cities along the I-95 corridor, temperatures will hit the 90-degree mark or higher for the typical number of times this summer.
The region will have its share of rainfall, as more showers and thunderstorms will return during midsummer, and humidity levels may run higher than normal.
Pastelok also added there is always the threat of a tropical system sneaking up the coast from the south, as hurricane season will ramp up by the end of June.
Southeast / Southern Plains
Hot and Dry but Wary of Tropical Storms
After the pattern change, the Southeast will remain hot and dry into the early summer with a high fire danger.
As the season progresses, increasing amounts of thunderstorms, and perhaps tropical systems, could bring some relief from the heat and dryness, but would increase the threat of flooding.
"Areas from the Middle Atlantic on south and west will run with temperatures above normal, but not as warm as last year," Pastelok said. "The dryness in the Southeast will continue into the start of summer."
Pastelok said the chance for early season (June) tropical storm development is possible along all the Southeast U.S. coast. If the systems are weak and non-destructive, tropical moisture could bring some very beneficial rainfall to the area. However, there is always the chance a system could develop into a hurricane.
Southwestern Plains / Rockies / Interior Southwest
Robust Monsoon and Tropical Pacific Season Predicted
The southwestern Plains into the Southwest Deserts will remain hot and dry for much of the summer, which could mean an increased chance of wildfires.
"The drought in the southwestern Plains and interior Southwest will continue, spreading northward into the central Rockies," Pastelok said. "As always, with this drought comes a high fire danger."
The monsoon season that was non-existent last year may be more robust this summer, according to Western Expert Meteorologist Ken Clark, which means thunderstorms over the Southwest. Clark suspects this will be a more active tropical season in the Eastern Pacific, especially in late summer. Weakening Pacific tropical systems could send tropical moisture into the Southwest and trigger thunderstorm activity.
West Coast / Pacific Northwest
June Gloom on the West Coast
"June Gloom" might get a late start this summer, but could persist well into the summer along the California beaches.
Although La Nina is weakening and transitioning to a more neutral state, Pacific Ocean waters will still be colder than normal, giving the extreme West Coast, including beach areas, a persistent chill.
"The West Coast will have near- or below-normal temperatures as the cold [ocean temperatures] hangs on through the summer, while the interior West heats up," Pastelok said.
As for the Pacific Northwest, the region will be back and forth, with some drying late in the season.
Downpours and locally severe thunderstorms over the Central states will not only foil holiday weekend activities, but will also put some lives at risk.
A few days after a chilly storm departs the Northeast, warm weather will make a strong comeback in parts of the Midwest and the East later next week.
The storm responsible for the wind, cold, rain and snow in the Northeast Friday and Saturday will slowly ease up for the balance of the holiday weekend.
During Sunday's race, the skies will be variably cloudy with the risk of a few showers.
"This pup was literally singing when he saw his family," Michelle Karolicki, relocation program manager of the Central Oklahoma Humane Society, said about a reunion that took place on Thursday.
Another plunge of chilly air will set the stage for the risk of a frost and freeze centered Michigan, Ohio, West Virginia and other nearby states this weekend.
New York City (1861)
Snow was reported.
Wesley, LA (1991)
Heavy rain (25th-26th) resulted in widespread flooding. One hundred-sixty homes -- 80% of the total number of houses in town -- received structural or water damage. A total of 6.5" of rain fell in 2-1/2 hours.
Dallas, Ft. Worth Texas (1982)
Flooding rains in Dallas, Ft. Worth, area; over 2" in most places. Total rainfall of 13" at this point of the month, making it the wettest May since records began in 1898.