NOAA Lowers Hurricane Forecast, AccuWeather.com Holds 18-21 Storms
This graphic shows what to expect during an average hurricane season. This year the incline is likely to be later and sharper, due to La Niña.
AccuWeather.com meteorologists still expect a bumper crop of named tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin this season, which is still, climatologically, in its infancy.
The peak of hurricane season is during the middle of September. However, during the second half of August, the number of named systems in the Atlantic typically ramps up at a marked pace.
AccuWeather.com Hurricane Expert, Joe Bastardi stated in his blog this morning that "during years when there is a reverse from El Niño to La Niña, there is an average of 4.3 storms by August 15 and 18.5 storms for the total season."
Joe added that there is much more to making hurricane forecasts than whether or not an El Niño or La Niña is present.
Water temperatures, atmospheric pressure, wind shear, jet stream level winds, ocean cycles and air temperature patterns over continental North America are only some of the additional parameters that are examined.
The presence or absence of any number of these has a profound effect on the formation of tropical cyclones.
Meteorologist Mark Mancuso commented, "The Cape Verde Season typically doesn't kick into gear until late August."
While Alex was an early exception, Colin is only the first of what is expected to be a very active Cape Verde storm season. A Cape Verde storm is one that forms out of tropical waves traveling westward from Africa and passing near the Cape Verde Islands.
Joe suspects the extreme heat and associated rising air centered over the South in recent weeks have been key in suppressing tropical activity of late and that once the extreme nature of this eases later in August and into September, that the lid may come off in the tropical Atlantic around the same time.
Unusually warm water temperatures in the western and tropical Atlantic, combined with lowering pressures in the tropics, decreasing wind shear and other factors will come into play all around the same time and should yield a bumper crop of tropical storms and/or hurricanes.
Joe believes it may be hard not to have a named system in the Atlantic during most days from late August to early October and there may be more than one system in operation at the same time.
J-B is sticking with his predictions from earlier in the summer.
Colorado State University is also sticking with their forecast from earlier this season. However, NOAA lowered their top end prediction.
The bottom line is, it is way too early too be yanking down forecast number of named systems in the Atlantic Basin.
People in the Caribbean, the Gulf Coast and the Atlantic Seaboard, especially the southern Atlantic Seaboard, should continue to prepare for a very active hurricane season.
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