Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to continue across portions of the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley tonight. Meanwhile, additional strong thunderstorms will occur through this evening in portions of the Southeast.
A cold front tracking through the Great Lakes will interact with warm, moist air over the eastern Great Lakes, producing showers and locally strong thunderstorms. The best chance for severe weather this evening will be across central and eastern Ohio into northern Kentucky. Strong storms could even make it as far east as western Pennsylvania tonight. The main threats with these thunderstorms will be damaging wind gusts and torrential downpours. Some hail is also possible with the strongest of storms. A lot of the thunderstorm activity will only persist through this evening before the storms weaken below severe limits with the loss of daytime heating.
Farther south, hot and humid conditions over parts of the Southeast will contribute to shower and thunderstorm activity through the first half of tonight. The best chance for organized severe weather lies across northern Alabama and Mississippi. These areas lie on the periphery of a strong upper level ridge of high pressure centered over the Southern Plains. Again in this region, the main threats will be damaging wind gusts and torrential downpours. The threat for the Southeast will diminish later on tonight with loss of daytime heating.
During the day Monday, there are several areas where severe thunderstorms are expected to develop. The first of which lies over parts of the Northeast ahead of the aforementioned cold frontal boundary. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across parts of New York and Pennsylvania during the morning hours. As these storms track into eastern New York and Pennsylvania into New England, they may intensify if there is substantial daytime heating in these areas. The best chance for severe weather lies from central New England down the I-95 corridor into parts of the Mid-Atlantic.
Also on Monday, upslope flow along the Front Range of the Colorado Rockies will promote thunderstorm development. These thunderstorms will fire up across eastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and western Kansas, where daytime heating will create a very unstable atmosphere. Damaging winds, large hail, and even a couple of tornadoes are possible Monday afternoon into Monday evening.
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