Storm Dilemma for South-Central US Next Week

November 25, 2011; 8:45 AM ET
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The weather for early next week over the South-Central United States hinges on whether or not a storm forms and stalls over the region.

There are some weather patterns that allow meteorologists to warn if a storm is on the way nearly a week in advance and other pattern where the weather is uncertain a day before.

It could be more like the latter over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley Monday into Tuesday.

Some of our forecasting tools are telling us a storm will form and stall over the region, while only a few suggest a front will sweep through Sunday into early Monday with a few hours of showers and thunderstorm.

According to Southern Weather Expert Dan Kottlowski, "A stalled storm of this nature, known as a 'closed low,' over the region this time of the year is highly unusual."

Typically steering westerly winds are too strong across the southern U.S. in November.

"A closed low a little more common across the northern States and in Canada," Kottlowski said.

If the storm were to form, strengthen and stall over the region, a zone from eastern Texas to the southern Appalachians could have multiple days of clouds, rain and thunderstorms.

So, unfortunately, this is a wait-and-see situation for at least a couple of days.

The storm is on the maps right now and taking a path similar to others in recent weeks. The weak storm was dropping southward along the California coast during Thanksgiving Day and will push across northern Mexico on Black Friday. The storm will bring some needed rain to western drought areas.

All the more reason, perhaps to believe that the storm will move steadily along across the South-Central states, like other similar storms have done during November.

Meanwhile, it appears a storm farther north will make steady progress from the northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest and part of Canada this weekend with few questions.


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