NOTE: This forecast was published in August 2012 and has since been updated; see our full-length 2012-2013 AccuWeather.com Winter Forecast update for the latest information.
Following a snow drought during winter 2011-2012, the mid-Atlantic and southern New England will get a snow dump this winter.
Above-normal snowfall is forecast for the major I-95 cities, including New York City, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington, D.C., during winter 2012-2013.
"The I-95 cities could get hit pretty good. It's a matter of getting the cold to phase in with the huge systems that we are going to see coming out of the southern branch of the jet stream this year," AccuWeather.com Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said.
The cold is expected to phase with the big storms during January and February with the potential for large snowstorms to make headlines and create travel headaches in the major cities.
A pedestrian makes his way through Times Square, Friday, Jan. 21, 2011, in New York. (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan)
On the other hand, the ski industry, which despite an early start for some resorts suffered a slow season overall last winter, will benefit from the above-normal snowfall.
Factors Behind the Above-Normal Snow Forecast
The presence of El Niño or La Niña - and their strength - is used to project how active the winter season is going to be. AccuWeather.com Long-Range meteorologists are projecting a weak to moderate El Niño by the fall.
An El Niño pattern is classified by above-normal water temperatures in the central and equatorial Pacific Ocean. Warming the ocean water in turn warms the air above the Pacific, causing weather patterns to change globally.
El Niño winters feature a strong southern branch of the jet stream across the U.S. When the strong southern jet stream phases with the northern branch of the jet stream (see graphic below), big storms can impact the East.
It should be noted that no two El Niños are the same. The strength of this phenomenon can mean a great deal for winter weather.
Furthermore, there are other factors that influence snowfall amounts for the winter. Enough cold air must meet with big East Coast storms for snow to fall in the I-95 corridor.
Blocking is a term that meteorologists in the Northeast use to describe areas of high pressure that dominate eastern Canada or Greenland at times during the winter, forcing cold air to reach to U.S.
"When blocking occurs, storms tend to slow their eastward progression off the East coast. You also get moist flow off the Atlantic to help enhance snowfall rates," AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Brian Edwards explained.
The AccuWeather Full-Length Winter Forecast will be released in October.
Strong thunderstorms are impacting areas from Texas to Louisiana with large hail, damaging winds and a risk of tornadoes.
Severe storms, some capable of producing tornadoes, will threaten communities across northeastern Texas, northwestern Louisiana and Arkansas into Tuesday night.
The same storm system responsible for producing violent thunderstorms in Oklahoma recently will reach the Atlantic Seaboard Thursday.
While additional strong thunderstorms will roll through through portions of tornado-ravaged Oklahoma Tuesday, the risk of tornadoes has diminished.
The atmospheric severe weather engine began firing on all cylinders this past weekend and reached full speed Monday over Oklahoma.
Preliminary reports are calling it an EF-4 tornado that has caused numerous fatalities and injuries in Moore, Okla.
Waterville, ME (1832)
Kennebec Flood discharged 140,000 cubic feet of water per second -- high stage not equalled until 1901, and not exceeded until 1936.
Hallam, NE (2004)
The "Hallam" tornado touched on the ground for 2.5 miles and reached F4 status at it's peak intensity. 95% if the town of Hallan's buildings were damages or destroyed.
New Brunswick, NJ (1804)
Tornado destroyed 2 barns, 1 hotel and 3 houses. "The damage done in this village cannot be less than $1,500 or $2,000." New York Evening Post, June 5, 1904.