Despite a quiet July in the Atlantic, the AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting team still expects the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season to be near normal in terms of the number of named storms. The forecast calls for a total of 12 tropical storms, five named hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
With the number of named tropical storms and hurricanes so far this season factored in, there should be eight additional tropical storms, four of which will become hurricanes, through the rest of the hurricane season. Of those four hurricanes, two could strengthen into major hurricanes, Category 3 or higher.
Astronaut Ron Garan snapped this photo of Hurricane Irene from aboard the International Space Station on Aug. 22, 2011. NOAA averages are based on data from 1981-2010. This was the initial AccuWeather 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast graphic released on April 26, 2012.
The tropics will become more active from the middle of August through the middle of September with an uptick in the number of named storms. This is the normal peak time of the Atlantic hurricane season.
The U.S. may be impacted by two more named tropical systems, according to AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski. The central Gulf Coast to the southern Virginia coast is most likely to get hit. Once again, Florida could be susceptible.
Flooding from Tropical Storm Debby in St. Petersburg, Fla. Photo was tweeted by Renee Greco.
The chances are lower for the western Gulf coast and northern Atlantic coast to endure a direct landfall of a named tropical system, but they are not immune. Even if a storm does not make landfall in these areas, there can still be impact of flooding rainfall far from where storms move inland.
A gradual fading of the season will occur during October, depending on how fast and strong El Niño comes on. El Niño is a phenomenon characterized by above-normal water temperatures across the central and equatorial Pacific. Water temperatures are warming in the Pacific with the pattern trending toward a weak El Niño.
When an El Niño pattern develops, it forces strong westerly winds high in the atmosphere to shift farther south across the Atlantic. More frequent episodes of high wind shear inhibit tropical development by preventing vertical building of clouds and a well-defined center.
The first widespread ice storm of the season will slowly diminish over parts of the southern and central Plains, but areas of slippery travel will continue into early Monday.
Summer-like heat will be short-lived eastern Australia early this week in advance of a cold front.
The reprieve from heavy rain across southern India will not last with the threat for flooding downpours set to return for the final day of November.
After another brief shot of chilly air over the weekend, the month of December will start out milder across the Northeast.
December will begin with a roar across the Northwest as rounds of rain, mountain snow and even ice are in store this week.
The strongest El Nino in 50 years will unfold this winter and significantly alter the chances for a white Christmas across the country.
Minneapolis, MN (1991)
A total of 46.9 inches of snow during November 1991 established a new all-time record for any month.
Buffalo, NY (2001)
The month was the mildest, most snow-free Novembers in history. There was not a flake of snow the entire month, which was the first time since records were kept.
Severe early cold with record November lows: Location Temperature Buffalo, NY 2 degrees New York City 7 degrees Boston -2 degrees Philadelphia 8 degrees (earliest ever below 10 degrees for city)