What, When and Where:
A band of rain that moved through Virginia and eastern Maryland this morning was poised at noon to cause a rainy afternoon and a wet and splashy commute for Philadelphia, New York City and nearby places. After school sports will be affected in a number of localities.
This is more than a passing shower; some places will have at least two hours of rain. The rain will depart from Philadelphia after dark, and New York City by midnight. Some of the rain will affect eastern New England, including Boston, overnight. All places will see an increase in sunshine tomorrow.
Reasons for this prediction:
This midday radar display from the Dover, Del., radar shows where the rain was just before noon.
This computer model for the six hours ending at 8 p.m. EDT shows an area with substantial rain:
Short-range computer models usually have highest accuracy. The rain area behaved this morning as predicted by this model.
The radar does not show just one solid area of rain, so the rain can start and stop at your location. No lightning was observed in this rain area before noon, but that could change during the afternoon. In areas with little wind after the rain stops, fog could form.
An unusually strong push of cool air for early September will move southward along the Atlantic Seaboard into the Labor Day weekend, before July-like heat returns by next week.
While lulls in tropical activity in the Atlantic will continue, a rapid end to the hurricane season in September does not always occur during an El Nino.
Heat will be erased by an autumnlike air mass across parts of northern Europe.
While Tropical Storm Kevin will stay well away from Mexico, its moisture will still lead to an increase in showers and thunderstorms from Baja California to the Four Corners region of the United States.
A stormy weather pattern will prevail through September across much of southern South America.
Typhoons and building drought will impact more than one billion people in southeastern Asia this fall.
Tampa, FL (1935)
The "Labor Day" hurricane hit Tampa, killing 400 people. Earlier, this intense storm had a center barometric pressure of 26.35 inches - the lowest recorded sea level pressure in the Western Hemisphere.
Denver, CO (1961)
Earliest snow on record; a total of 4.2 inches. A great storm raged at high elevations with 2-3 feet of snow closing roads on Labor Day weekend.
Coffeyville, KS (1970)
Hailstone 17.5/44 cm in circumference 1.671 lb/757 gm.