The stage is being readied for a disruptive nor'easter over the eastern U.S. late this week.
A storm is forecast to develop and strengthen rapidly affecting tens of millions of people in the Northeast Thursday into Friday night with wind and rain.
Some people may be hit with flooding, wind damage or travel disruptions. A few folks could even be surprised by wet snow.
This will end up being the type of wind storm that can knock down some tree limbs and trees, perhaps taking some power lines with them.
Gusts in some locations could reach 50 mph.
Just about everyone from the Carolinas to Maine will catch some of the winds from the storm either on the front, back or middle of the storm.
The heaviest rain appears to be aiming from the northern Delmarva Peninsula and eastern Pennsylvania to Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Over a couple of inches of rain could fall in part of this region.
If this happens, there could be more than the usual concerns for urban flooding and travel delays, which appear to be an almost certainty in this case.
This time of the year, fallen leaves play a role in making roads and sidewalks extra slick. Leaf-clogged storm drains can result in street and basement flooding.
Small stream flooding is also possible with the remote chance of lowland flooding along some of the rivers. It all depends on how intense the rain is and for how long.
Right now, most places appear to be on track for 12 to 24 hours of heavy rainfall, which is probably "not" enough to have a flooding response from most rivers.
Only if the storm were to stall would river flooding unfold and would rain impact play at the NLCS in Philadelphia on Saturday.
For now it appears the storm will have departed by then, but gusty, cool winds may be an issue at Citizen's Bank Park.
The storm should be long gone for play in the Bronx during the ALCS next Monday.
This could be a perfect set up for serious coastal flooding in Boston and over eastern New England with strong onshore winds. Fortunately, the first quarter moon phase will not add to tide levels.
Coastal New England could take a pounding from the storm Friday and Friday night.
Despite the unusual warmth of late in the mid-Atlantic, the storm will tap into chilly air.
There is the potential for wet snow to fall over the highest elevations of the Appalachians with this storm.
The Smoky Mountains in eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina and the ridges in West Virginia are the most likely candidates Thursday night into Friday.
The storm would have to manufacture out its own cold air furiously for snow of consequence to fall on the Poconos and Catskills as well as the mountains of New England. However, stranger things have happened.
While some weather weenies would relish an early-season wet snowstorm, the destruction caused by the weight of wet snow on partially leafed trees could be disastrous.
Rather than taking a traditional track northward along the Atlantic Seaboard, this storm will form over land first in the mid-Atlantic, then it will shift just off the south coast of New England in explosive fashion.
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Western Pacific (1990)
Typhoon Steve east of Iwo Jimo. Peak winds of 125 mph sustained gusts to 155 mph.
5-12" of rain north of Denver led to serious flash flooding (28th-29th). 108 mobile homes were destroyed and 481 others were damaged in Ft. Collins. 5 people were killed and 40 others injured.
Sharon, PA (1999)
70 mph wind gus in a thunderstorm.