The Western Pacific has been relatively tranquil for the past month with no active tropical cyclones, however that could change this week.
An area of showers and thunderstorms south of Guam, will have an opportunity to become better organized as it drifts westward toward the Philippines.
Warm ocean water temperatures combined with relatively low amounts of wind shear will provide a reasonable environment for tropical development this week.
Development is expected to be slow, but by the weekend the first named tropical cyclone of the year could have its sight set on the Philippines.
This potential tropical cyclone would likely take a track to the west-northwest, which would lead to a landfall in the Philippines this weekend.
The area that could suffer the worst impacts is the southern and central Philippines, including some of the areas still recovering from former Super Typhoon Haiyan.
The greatest threat at this time appears to be for flooding rainfall. Fortunately, the system is not expected to organize quickly enough to cause widespread damaging winds.
Rainfall amounts of 100-200 mm (4-8 inches) will be common with local amounts around 300 mm (12 inches). Rainfall of this magnitude will lead to flooding and hinder rebuilding efforts across the region.
A front north of the Philippines could act to pull the moisture from this potential storm northward, which would lead to potential flooding across much of the Philippines late in the weekend and into next week.
Even if this area of unsettled weather does not develop into a named cyclone, the heavy rainfall will still reach the Philippines before the end of the week.
Temperatures will take a tumble across the northeastern United States during the first half of this week.
Beneficial rain will douse California late this week, with the potential for some rain to reach southern portions of the state.
Following a chilly World Series opener during Tuesday evening, a chilly rain may threaten play for Game 2 in Cleveland on Wednesday evening.
A strengthening tropical cyclone will unleash heavy rain and strong winds on areas from western Myanmar to northeast India and Bangladesh this week.
Cool air that has been in place across the United Kingdom over the past week will be replaced with milder air by the middle of the week.
Flooding downpours and thunderstorms will target a part of the central United States at midweek.
Tampa, FL (1921)
Hurricane "most destructive/highest tide," pressure 28.81"/975.6 mb, winds 100 mph, tide 10.5 feet, six dead and $3 million damage.
Strong coastal storm with winds exceeding 100 mph over the ocean; 82-mph wind gust at south end of Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel. Bethany Beach Delaware being evacuated as waves came over the dunes. Heavy snow in NC mountains. Mt. Pisgah - 11 inches; Mt. Mitchell - 6 inches.
Caribou, ME (1990)
19 consecutive days of measurable precipitation.