Philly's Weather Next Week: A Potential Sandy Scenario

By , Expert Senior Meteorologist
October 24, 2012; 5:04 AM
Share |

Sandy will cruise the Caribbean the next few days. However, while Sandy could set sail for Bermuda next week, there is still the danger of a change in course, bringing the storm crashing ashore in the coastal Northeast.

Indeed, it will seem like the weather in Philadelphia and South Jersey is on a tropical vacation this week with warmth and spotty thunderstorms.

The period of consternation and concern for potential damaging and disruptive weather impacts in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware spans Monday to Wednesday of next week.

A hurricane or hybrid storm remaining offshore would have minimal direct impact on Philadelphia, Trenton and Wilmington. Most likely, cool air would sweep in with spotty showers in this scenario. Seas would be rough off of Atlantic City. The north-facing beaches of Delaware could have some minor coastal flooding and erosion problems.

However, there is a danger of the storm being captured and pulled westward by another system approaching from the west next week. Sandy would undergo a transition from a hurricane to a hybrid or non-tropical system, but the storm would retain every bit of a hurricane's intensity.

Such a westward curve could potentially bring far worse wind and coastal flooding problems, when compared to Irene in 2011 in terms of the Northeast as a whole. Hurricane-force gusts would sweep inland downing scores trees and causing widespread power outages. The combination of heavy rain and fallen leaves would lead to significant flash and urban flooding. There would be travel disruptions matching that of a giant nor'easter.

The storm would have to turn inland over the Delmarva or South Jersey for the worse-case scenario effect in Philadelphia and Atlantic City. Such a path could bring worse conditions to the shore than the Perfect Storm of 1991, also known as the Halloween Storm.

A third scenario allows Sandy to escape out to sea but forms a new storm near the coast with more typical nor'easter conditions in later in the period next week. Such a storm would not be likely to have such dramatic and disruptive impacts on Philadelphia.

Thumbnail image of Philadelphia skyline by Photos.com

Comments

Comments left here should adhere to the AccuWeather.com Community Guidelines. Profanity, personal attacks, and spam will not be tolerated.

More Weather News

  • Emotional Dog, Owner Reunions After Oklahoma Tornadoes

    May 24, 2013; 8:44 PM ET

    "This pup was literally singing when he saw his family," Michelle Karolicki, relocation program manager of the Central Oklahoma Humane Society, said about a reunion that took place on Thursday.

Daily U.S. Extremes

past 24 hours

  Extreme Location
High N/A
Low N/A
Precip N/A

WeatherWhys®

This Day In Weather History

North Texas (1986)
Severe thunderstorms produced 95 mph wind gusts and widespread damage. More than 3" of rain fell in less than an hour. A 29 year old women and 6 year old daughter drowned when the underpass they were driving into was flooded out.

Northeast (1877)
Inland snowstorm from New Jersey to New England; 4" of snow at Berkshire County, MA.

West Coast (1982)
Heat wave: San Francisco, CA 91 degrees, (new record; previous record 79 in 1975) San Jose, CA 84 degrees Portland, OR 85 degrees (tied record)