Oil Slick Could Accelerate up the East If Not Contained Soon
A new simulation shows how critical it is to stop oil from the Deepwater Horizon disaster from impacting Southern Florida and the Gulf Stream.
The simulation, from the University Corporation of Atmospheric Research (UCAR), supports AccuWeather.com's stories regarding the impact of the loop current on drifting oil from the spill.
The UCAR simulation illustrates how the loop current and Gulf Stream could carry the oil to the Eastern Seaboard and North Atlantic. UCAR points out that the Gulf Stream could carry the oil quickly, up to 100 miles per day, if oil rounds the tip of Florida.
AccuWeather.com experts have analyzed ocean currents, computer models and consulted various scientists to determine the probability of oil impacting specific locations along the Gulf and East Coasts.
The AccuWeather.com forecast is believed to be the first to incorporate weather factors to come up with an all-inclusive probability percentage for those locations.
The UCAR simulation does not include any weather factors, relying instead on what its scientists call a sophisticated computer model and a dye tracer. A quote from UCAR's website also says, "The dye tracer used in the model has no actual physical resemblance to true oil."
| Location | 7 Days | 30 Days | 60 Days | 90 Days | 120 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Isle, La. | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Gulfport, Miss. | 40% | 55% | 80% | 85% | 90% |
| Mobile Bay, Ala. | 60% | 80% | 85% | 90% | 90% |
| Florida Coast | |||||
| Pensacola, Fla. | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Tampa, Fla. | 5% | 25% | 35% | 40% | 45% |
| Key West, Fla. | 5% | 15% | 25% | 35% | 40% |
| Miami Beach, Fla. | 0% | 1% | 5% | 10% | 15% |
| Daytona Beach, Fla. | 0% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 5% |
| Jacksonville, Fla. | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| East Coast | |||||
| Charleston, S.C. | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% |
| Myrtle Beach, S.C. | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% |
| Cape Hatteras, N.C. | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 3% |
| Norfolk, Va. | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% |
| Ocean City, Md. | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Atlantic City, N.J. | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Montauk Long Island, N.Y. | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Cape Cod, Mass. | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Texas and Mexico Coast | |||||
| Port Arthur, Texas | 0% | 12% | 22% | 35% | 40% |
| Galveston Island, Texas | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 35% |
| Corpus Christi, Texas | 0% | 5% | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Brownsville, Texas | 0% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 15% |
| Cancun, Mexico | 0% | 4% | 8% | 12% | 20% |
Related to the Story:
BP Running Out of Time in the Gulf of Mexico
Florida to Louisiana under the Greatest Risk of Oil Contamination during Hurricane Season
Heavy Thunderstorms to Roll across Oil Slick Area
Wind to Shift Oil Slick, Smell toward Florida Panhandle
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Daily U.S. Extremes
past 24 hours
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|---|---|---|
| High | 113° | Death Valley, CA |
| Low | 30° | Bellemont, AZ |
| Precip | 9.70" | Miami, FL |
WeatherWhys®
A large, horrific tornado struck the city of Joplin, Mo., last year on this date. The twister cut a deadly path across the south side of the city, leaving over 159 dead and at least 1,150 injured. The Joplin tornado currently ranks as the 7th deadliest tornado in U.S. history.
This Day In Weather History
New Hampshire (1814)
A tornado crossed Merrimac, Litchfield, Londonderry and North Chester. The same storm produced hailstones that had an 11-inch circumference and weighed 1/2 pound.
Northeast (1989)
More rain in an already wet month. Monthly totals topped 11 inches at New York City, 9 inches at Bridgeport, Conn., and 8 inches at Baltimore (all three totals set records for May).
Rough Weather
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