What's the Probability of Oil Drifters Rounding Florida?
Jun 8, 2010; 6:01 AM ET
People walk along the water in Gulf Shores, Ala., Saturday, June 5, 2010 as streams of oil approach the beach. Oil from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill has started washing ashore on the Alabama and Florida coast beaches. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)
Although some progress has been made in capping the broken well, the oil slick continues to grow in the Gulf, with even more potential to impact the Eastern Seaboard.
Oil has already begun to reach the Florida Peninsula, with reports of tar balls washing up on Pensacola beaches as early as last Friday morning.
According to AccuWeather.com meteorologists, pieces of the oil slick located in the central Gulf are breaking off and beginning to enter the loop current. Models show drifting pieces of oil cutting under Key West, Fla.
There is the possibility that drifting pieces of oil could get swept up in the Gulf Stream and round the tip of the Florida Peninsula. Once in the Gulf Stream, oil drifters could be swept toward the Atlantic with the western end of the Bahamas the most vulnerable.
Oil in the form of tar balls could wash up along the beaches of popular tourist destinations of Grand Bahama Island and Nassau.
The loop current exists as part of the Gulf Stream, which flows north between Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula, and continues to flow north into the Gulf of Mexico before looping to the south and then east through the Florida Straits.
Image of the loop current courtesy of NOAA.
The danger of oil becoming wrapped in the loop current is the current's Gulf Stream direction, which could carry oil, mostly in the form of tar balls, swiftly up the Atlantic Seaboard.
It appears that eddies, or warm water tracks that break off the loop current and flow westward, have subsided somewhat.
Most of the oil previously caught in the loop current was carried westward through the Gulf by the warm water eddies, and this pattern is set to shift.
Upcoming Weather Conditions
The weather in the Gulf will remain warm and humid, with light winds to the north-northeast through midweek. The light north-northeast winds may help keep the oil from making it to Florida beaches.
The lack of eddies, paired with a wind shift to the southeast occurring later in the week, increases the probability of oil impacting specific locations along the Gulf and East coasts.
Below is a table that provides the probability of oil reaching specific locations. We will continue to make updates to the table as weather conditions and oil containment efforts develop.
What do the probabilities mean?
For example, at Galveston Island during the next 30 days, there is a 10% chance of oil impacting coastal areas within that time period.
Over the next 120 days, there is a 35% chance of impact.
Please note, while the probabilities do take into account the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Forecast, the probabilities can change dramatically based on the strength and path of a hurricane moving through the Gulf of Mexico.
| Location | 7 Days | 30 Days | 60 Days | 90 Days | 120 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Isle, La. | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Gulfport, Miss. | 60% | 75% | 80% | 85% | 90% |
| Mobile Bay, Ala. | 60% | 80% | 85% | 90% | 90% |
| Florida Coast and Bahamas | |||||
| Pensacola, Fla. | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Tampa, Fla. | 5% | 25% | 35% | 40% | 45% |
| Key West, Fla. | 5% | 15% | 25% | 35% | 40% |
| Miami Beach, Fla. | 0% | 1% | 5% | 10% | 15% |
| Daytona Beach, Fla. | 0% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 5% |
| Jacksonville, Fla. | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| Freeport | 10% | 15% | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| East Coast | |||||
| Charleston, S.C. | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% |
| Myrtle Beach, S.C. | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% |
| Cape Hatteras, N.C. | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 3% |
| Norfolk, Va. | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% |
| Ocean City, Md. | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Atlantic City, N.J. | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Montauk Long Island, N.Y. | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Cape Cod, Mass. | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Texas and Mexico Coast | |||||
| Port Arthur, Texas | 0% | 12% | 22% | 35% | 40% |
| Galveston Island, Texas | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 35% |
| Corpus Christi, Texas | 0% | 5% | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Brownsville, Texas | 0% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 15% |
| Cancun, Mexico | 0% | 4% | 8% | 12% | 20% |
Related to the Story:
Oil Slick Could Accelerate Up the East If Not Contained Soon
BP Running Out of Time in the Gulf of Mexico
Florida to Louisiana under the Greatest Risk of Oil Contamination during Hurricane Season
Videos:
Tar Balls the Newest Addition in the Gulf Coast
Criminal Investigation Launched Over Oil Spill
If a Hurricane Hits The Gulf: Where Will the Oil Go?
President Obama: BP Had Underwater Cameras the Whole Time
The Loop Current...not Just a Hurricane Concern!
Ocean Currents Likely to Carry Oil Along Atlantic Coast
The 1979 Oil Spill and Tropical Cyclones that Followed
What the Oil Spill Looks Like on the Beaches
NASA Timelapse of the Oil Spill in the Gulf of Mexico
Story by Carly Porter, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer.
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A large, horrific tornado struck the city of Joplin, Mo., last year on this date. The twister cut a deadly path across the south side of the city, leaving over 159 dead and at least 1,150 injured. The Joplin tornado currently ranks as the 7th deadliest tornado in U.S. history.
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New Hampshire (1814)
A tornado crossed Merrimac, Litchfield, Londonderry and North Chester. The same storm produced hailstones that had an 11-inch circumference and weighed 1/2 pound.
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More rain in an already wet month. Monthly totals topped 11 inches at New York City, 9 inches at Bridgeport, Conn., and 8 inches at Baltimore (all three totals set records for May).
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