Unseasonably warm conditions will continue around New York City ahead of a soaking that will be enhanced from Karen.
High temperatures in the upper 70s and generally rain-free weather will continue around the region through the day Sunday.
However, two weather systems have a chance at bringing a dose of heavy rain from Monday night into Tuesday.
A front from the Plains is forecast to sweep off the East coast on Tuesday. Ahead of the front, drenching rain is in store with a southerly flow of moisture.
Surviving within that flow will be Karen as a tropical rainstorm.
With the arrival of Karen's rain will come the possibility of flash and urban flooding, as well as travel delays, most likely Monday night with perhaps some lingering effects on Tuesday.
Most areas could easily handle a couple of inches of rain with few problems as the last thorough soaking was Sept. 21 and 22. Flash flooding issues will become a problem if that rain falls in a short amount of time and if rain totals exceed two inches.
Some of the heaviest downpours will be accompanied by a burst of strong winds.
Southerly winds ahead of and during the rain may be rather strong and gusty at the coast Monday into Tuesday. Tides may run a foot or two above published values with minor flooding at times of high tide possible as a result.
The air behind the front and Karen next week will be cooler than this week, but not abnormally so. Temperatures will still average near to above normal for the rest of next week.
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