AccuWeather.com

By Meghan Evans, Meteorologist

Oct 17, 2010; 2:59 AM ET

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Warm, sunny and dry conditions across Georgia and Florida are resulting in an elevated fire threat this weekend.

High pressure in control of the Southeast is promoting the dry and warm weather.

The relative humidity will drop into the 20s and teens during the afternoon hours, while highs climb well into the 70s and 80s.

Cities that are included in the fire risk area include Atlanta, Tampa, and Orlando.

People who live in these areas will need to exercise extreme caution with any outdoor activities that involve sparks. Special care should be taken when grilling or building campfires, and cigarette butts should be disposed of properly.

Those operating harvesting and mowing equipment should be extremely cautious as sparks from these types of equipment can spark fires with such tinder-dry vegetation and grass.

Be careful not to park any vehicles over dry vegetation or grass.

Southeast Drought

Drought conditions are gripping a large part of the South, and with a La Nina pattern in place, no significant rainfall appears to be in sight. The prolonged stretch of very dry conditions may lead to water-use restrictions and an increased number of wildfires.

How Dry Has It Been in the South

Drier-than-normal conditions have been in place across portions of the South for much of the year, bolstering drought conditions for many areas from the Gulf states to the Ohio Valley. An exceptional dry spell over the past month or two has only made matters worse for some areas.

The U.S. Drought Monitor release on October 12, 2010, shows that severe (orange) and extreme (red) drought conditions exist from Alabama to Louisiana through portions of the mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys.

Shreveport, La., has only received 62 percent of the normal rainfall from Jan. 1 to Oct. 16, 2010 with a deficit of nearly 15 inches of rain.

In Monroe, La., 79 percent of the normal rain from Jan. 1 to Oct. 16, 2010, has fallen. The rainfall for this period of time is approximately 10 inches below the normal there.

The rainfall from Jan 1. through the middle of October has been 81 percent of normal in Jackson, Miss., but the dry conditions have become even worse over the past couple of months. Only 1 percent of the normal rain has fallen in Jackson since September 1, 2010.

Similarly, Memphis, Tenn., has only received 3 percent of their normal rainfall since September 1. Only 0.14 of an inch of rain has fallen during this period, where normal rainfall is 4.73 inches.

As Kentucky's drought conditions have worsened over recent months, the Associated Press reports that numerous wildfires have struck tinder-dry fields in recent months, tobacco crops have taken a hit due to the dry conditions, and there are fears of water supply shortages.

Fifty counties in Kentucky are already under a Level 2 drought declaration, meaning that there could soon be conservation advisories or mandatory water-use restrictions.

Tropical systems or several big autumn storms would be needed to bust the drought in the South.

Texas and the Southeast coast are among areas that have received torrential rainfall from tropical storms or remnants of tropical storms, but the remainder of the Gulf states and the Mississippi and Ohio valleys have missed out.

Parts of Texas have received significant rainfall from Alex and Hermine this hurricane season, while eastern North Carolina was recently soaked by the remnants of Nicole.

Dry Conditions May Be Long-Term with La Nina Pattern

While there may be some quick-hitting storms that bring some rain to the South in upcoming weeks and perhaps months, no significant widespread rain events that would be needed to break the drought are expected.

A La Nina pattern is setting up in the Pacific, and this is not good news for rain prospects in the South.

La Nina winters are typically drier and milder than normal with the storm track too far to the north to deliver significant rain to the South.

In contrast, the setup of the jet stream in a typical La Nina winter makes the Pacific Northwest a prime target for wet weather.

Last year, an El Nino pattern was under way, and that helped to bring the storm track farther to the south. This is likely the culprit behind the big, record-setting snowstorms that buried the mid-Atlantic.

Related to the Story:

Southeast Satellite

La Nina Vs. El Nino

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