Typhoon Neoguri is rapidly intensifying and will likely become a super typhoon as it moves northwest over the warm open waters of the western Pacific. Anyone in Japan and even South Korea will have to watch this storm and pay close attention to the track.
Strengthening will continue through the next couple of days as the typhoon progresses through an area of very warm ocean waters and low wind shear. This, along with being a well-defined storm already, is likely to allow this to be a very powerful typhoon.
Satellite image showing Typhoon Neoguri moving west and well away from Guam Saturday night, courtesy of NOAA
The cyclone is expected to begin to take a more northerly track as it approaches the Ryukyu Islands and then slowly turn toward the northeast and approach southern Japan Tuesday and Wednesday.
Before starting to make a northeast turn, Neoguri is expected to start to weaken as it encounters wind shear with a cold front to the north and also some cooler waters just south of western Japan.
A cold front moving into eastern Asia is expected to direct the cyclone northward and away from Taiwan. This front, if it is delayed in its progress east, may allow this storm to push close enough to South Korea to bring some stronger wind gusts, heavy rain and also large waves.
Circulation around the cyclone could also lead to a strengthening monsoon across the Philippines with flooding rainfall possible in west-central and northwest parts of the country, depending on the exact track of the storm.
No matter the exact track of Neoguri, winds over the southern Ryukyu Islands could gust past 100 mph (160 kph). Heavy rainfall of over 8 inches of rain is possible over some of the mountainous terrain of the islands. Quite large storm surge is possible over the southern islands with some locations near the center of the storm seeing a threat for storm surge of over 20 feet (6 meter).
Closer to Tokyo, the effects of the storm look to be a threat for heavy rain gusty winds for a time late in the week with Neoguri likely well to the north over the Sea of Japan.
Meteorologists Alan Reppert and Dave Samuhel contributed to the content of this story.
Unsettled weather for the extended Labor Day weekend will be across the Southeast, Upper Midwest, northern Rockies and the Four Corners.
Tropical Depression 14-E is several hundred miles southwest of Mexico and is expected to strengthen slowly into a tropical storm.
A stormy weather pattern will prevail through September across much of southern South America.
While lulls in tropical activity in the Atlantic will continue, a rapid end to the hurricane season in September does not always occur during an El Niño.
The combination of moisture from Erika and a non-tropical system will drench areas from Florida to the South Carolina coast through the middle of the week.
Heat will be erased by an autumnlike air mass across parts of northern Europe.
Long Island NY (1821)
Long Island hurricane of 1821 struck western Long Island. The storm affected a densely populated area where weather observers were common.
Tampa, FL (1935)
The "Labor Day" hurricane hit Tampa, killing 400 people. Earlier, this intense storm had a center barometric pressure of 26.35 inches - the lowest recorded sea level pressure in the Western Hemisphere.
Denver, CO (1961)
Earliest snow on record; a total of 4.2 inches. A great storm raged at high elevations with 2-3 feet of snow closing roads on Labor Day weekend.