Typhoon Neoguri is rapidly intensifying and will likely become a super typhoon as it moves northwest over the warm open waters of the western Pacific. Anyone in Japan and even South Korea will have to watch this storm and pay close attention to the track.
Strengthening will continue through the next couple of days as the typhoon progresses through an area of very warm ocean waters and low wind shear. This, along with being a well-defined storm already, is likely to allow this to be a very powerful typhoon.
Satellite image showing Typhoon Neoguri moving west and well away from Guam Saturday night, courtesy of NOAA
The cyclone is expected to begin to take a more northerly track as it approaches the Ryukyu Islands and then slowly turn toward the northeast and approach southern Japan Tuesday and Wednesday.
Before starting to make a northeast turn, Neoguri is expected to start to weaken as it encounters wind shear with a cold front to the north and also some cooler waters just south of western Japan.
A cold front moving into eastern Asia is expected to direct the cyclone northward and away from Taiwan. This front, if it is delayed in its progress east, may allow this storm to push close enough to South Korea to bring some stronger wind gusts, heavy rain and also large waves.
Circulation around the cyclone could also lead to a strengthening monsoon across the Philippines with flooding rainfall possible in west-central and northwest parts of the country, depending on the exact track of the storm.
No matter the exact track of Neoguri, winds over the southern Ryukyu Islands could gust past 100 mph (160 kph). Heavy rainfall of over 8 inches of rain is possible over some of the mountainous terrain of the islands. Quite large storm surge is possible over the southern islands with some locations near the center of the storm seeing a threat for storm surge of over 20 feet (6 meter).
Closer to Tokyo, the effects of the storm look to be a threat for heavy rain gusty winds for a time late in the week with Neoguri likely well to the north over the Sea of Japan.
Meteorologists Alan Reppert and Dave Samuhel contributed to the content of this story.
Despite the calendar flipping to December, snow is not in the works for Washington, D.C., and Baltimore this week. Milder air and rain will instead make a return.
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Minus 51 degrees.
New England (1945)
Severe "nor'easter" in New England - winds in Boston averaged 40.5 mph over a 24-hour period. The rain changed to snow which accumulated to 16 inches in interior New England. Thirty-tree deaths were attributed to the storm.
November 1972 was one of the wettest on record for the Northeastern U.S. As of the 27th, NYC had its wettest November ever with 11.36 inches. This broke the old record of 9.97 inches. Binghamton, NY, had a monthly total of 7.11 inches -- the wettest November in the 75-year history of record keeping at Broome County Airport. Binghamton also had 19.4 inches of snow -- exactly a foot above normal.