Neoguri a Dangerous Typhoon With Japan a Likely Target

By Eric Leister, Meteorologist
July 6, 2014; 2:52 PM ET
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Typhoon Neoguri is rapidly intensifying and will likely become a super typhoon as it moves northwest over the warm open waters of the western Pacific. Anyone in Japan and even South Korea will have to watch this storm and pay close attention to the track.

Strengthening will continue through the next couple of days as the typhoon progresses through an area of very warm ocean waters and low wind shear. This, along with being a well-defined storm already, is likely to allow this to be a very powerful typhoon.

Satellite image showing Typhoon Neoguri moving west and well away from Guam Saturday night, courtesy of NOAA

The cyclone is expected to begin to take a more northerly track as it approaches the Ryukyu Islands and then slowly turn toward the northeast and approach southern Japan Tuesday and Wednesday.

Before starting to make a northeast turn, Neoguri is expected to start to weaken as it encounters wind shear with a cold front to the north and also some cooler waters just south of western Japan.

Japan Weather Center
Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Center

A cold front moving into eastern Asia is expected to direct the cyclone northward and away from Taiwan. This front, if it is delayed in its progress east, may allow this storm to push close enough to South Korea to bring some stronger wind gusts, heavy rain and also large waves.

Circulation around the cyclone could also lead to a strengthening monsoon across the Philippines with flooding rainfall possible in west-central and northwest parts of the country, depending on the exact track of the storm.

No matter the exact track of Neoguri, winds over the southern Ryukyu Islands could gust past 100 mph (160 kph). Heavy rainfall of over 8 inches of rain is possible over some of the mountainous terrain of the islands. Quite large storm surge is possible over the southern islands with some locations near the center of the storm seeing a threat for storm surge of over 20 feet (6 meter).

Closer to Tokyo, the effects of the storm look to be a threat for heavy rain gusty winds for a time late in the week with Neoguri likely well to the north over the Sea of Japan.

Meteorologists Alan Reppert and Dave Samuhel contributed to the content of this story.


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