Kocet's Corner: Winter Hasn't Taken Hold...Yet

John Kocet
By John Kocet, Senior Meteorologist
Jan 29, 2012; 2:17 AM ET
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What's wrong with this winter you ask?

There is nothing terribly unusual about it. The atmosphere always goes through these cycles. Sometimes the weather is really bad; at other times it's not.

Quite frankly though, there was more winter at the end of October when that big snowstorm hit the Northeast than there has been for the past two months. Look at those snowfall amounts! Just pitiful!

Last year by this time, there had already been record snowfall from New Jersey across New England. Hartford, Conn., had nearly 90 inches of snow for the entire 2010-11 winter season, and in the Berkshires, winter totals were over 100 inches.

And what about February 2010 when the mid-Atlantic region was hit by a one-two punch that rivaled the biggest snowfalls of all time? During that month alone, Baltimore had 50 inches of snow and southern New Jersey had more than 3 feet.

Why Isn't Winter Getting into Gear?

Naturally, to answer these questions we have to look at the jet stream.

The jet stream has been farther north than it should be which has stopped frigid air masses from migrating south. Furthermore, any cold air that has come down has made a quick retreat before any storm could tap it. Thus the general lack of snow from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard has continued.

So could this pattern persist all winter? Sure, it could. However, something will happen later next week that could be a sign that February will turn out much different than December and January. Look for a major storm coming out of the South later next week followed by an immediate shift to much colder conditions.

Will that last? I can't say, but I have a hunch that there will be a lot more fun and games in February than there has been over the past eight or nine weeks.

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This Day In Weather History

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