2010 Hurricane Season Will Be More Active, Joe Bastardi Predicts
Apr 8, 2010; 5:30 PM ET
AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center meteorologists, led by Chief Long-Range Meteorologist and Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi, are calling for a much more active 2010 season with above-normal threats on the U.S. coastline.
"This year has the chance to be an extreme season," said Bastardi. "It is certainly much more like 2008 than 2009 as far as the overall threat to the United States' East and Gulf coasts."
Bastardi is forecasting seven landfalls. Five will be hurricanes, and two or three of the hurricanes will be major landfalls for the U.S.
He is calling for 16 to 18 tropical storms in total, 15 of which would be in the western Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico, and therefore a threat to land.
In a typical season, there are about 11 named storms, of which two to three impact the coast of the United States.
There are a number of physical drivers that have Bastardi concerned for this upcoming hurricane season. These include:
--The rapidly weakening El Niño.
--Warmer ocean temperatures in the typical Atlantic tropical breeding grounds compared to last year (tropical storms draw energy from warm water).
--Weakening trade winds which reduce the amount of dry air injected into the tropics from Africa.
--Higher humidity levels which provide additional upward motion in the air and fuel tropical storm development.
Bastardi compared a number of years to the upcoming season in terms of storm setup, including 1964, 1995, and 1998. All were major impact seasons for the U.S. coast.
In 1964, Hurricane Cleo struck southeastern Florida near Miami as a Category 2 storm and killed 217 people.
In 1995, Hurricane Opal made landfall in Pensacola, Florida as a Category 3 storm affecting 200 miles of coastline and causing $3 billion in damages.
In 1998, Hurricane Bonnie struck near Wilmington, North Carolina as a borderline Category 2 to Category 3 storm, causing significant harm to crops and $1 billion in damages.
As Bastardi had predicted in last year's hurricane forecast, the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season was a year far below the average, with 11 tropical depressions forming and only nine of those becoming tropical storms, the lowest number of named tropical storms or hurricanes since the 1997 season.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and continues through November 30. These dates were selected because 97 percent of hurricane activity occurs during this six-month period.
Related to the Story:
More Weather News
-
Everest Death Toll 4 from Weekend Rush
May 23, 2012; 5:10 AM ET
Another Everest climber was found dead this morning, bringing the weekend death toll to four, with one climber still missing.
-
Still Rebuilding One Year After The Joplin, Mo., Tornado
May 23, 2012; 5:08 AM ET
Just one year ago, Joplin, Mo., was struck by a devastating mile-wide EF-5 tornado on May 22, 2011.
-
East Daily Downpours This Week
May 23, 2012; 5:05 AM ET
A stalled weather pattern will bring a daily dose of disruptive downpours from portions of the Carolinas to New England.
-
Bud Forms in the Eastern Pacific
May 23, 2012; 5:03 AM ET
The second tropical storm of the 2012 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season has formed.
-
Pre-Season Tropical Storms Rare, But Not Unheard Of
May 23, 2012; 5:01 AM ET
Tropical Storm Alberto is only the third tropical storm to have formed prior to the official start of hurricane season in the past 31 years.
-
Record Flood on Amazon Tributary
May 23, 2012; 5:00 AM ET
The largest Amazon River tributary has marked its highest historical level following weeks of heavy rain in its catch basin, the AP has said.
-
Sanvu to Become First Pacific Typhoon in 2012
May 23, 2012; 4:58 AM ET
Sanvu, only the second western north Pacific tropical storm of 2012, is on track to become the first typhoon of the year.
-
Memorial Day Weekend Heat Wave
May 23, 2012; 4:55 AM ET
Break out the fans and air conditioners and get the pools ready as a heat wave is poised for portions of the Midwest and mid-Atlantic this Memorial Day weekend.
-
Breathtaking Video of Switzerland Landslide
May 23, 2012; 4:50 AM ET
A landslide has collapsed part of a steep mountainside in Switzerland.
-
Northern Italy Hit by Magnitude 6.0 Earthquake
May 23, 2012; 4:48 AM ET
The earthquake could be felt as far away as Milan and Venice.
Daily U.S. Extremes
past 24 hours
| Extreme | Location | |
|---|---|---|
| High | 113° | Death Valley, CA |
| Low | 30° | Bellemont, AZ |
| Precip | 9.70" | Miami, FL |
WeatherWhys®
A large, horrific tornado struck the city of Joplin, Mo., last year on this date. The twister cut a deadly path across the south side of the city, leaving over 159 dead and at least 1,150 injured. The Joplin tornado currently ranks as the 7th deadliest tornado in U.S. history.
This Day In Weather History
New Hampshire (1814)
A tornado crossed Merrimac, Litchfield, Londonderry and North Chester. The same storm produced hailstones that had an 11-inch circumference and weighed 1/2 pound.
Northeast (1989)
More rain in an already wet month. Monthly totals topped 11 inches at New York City, 9 inches at Bridgeport, Conn., and 8 inches at Baltimore (all three totals set records for May).












Comments
Comments left here should adhere to the AccuWeather.com Community Guidelines. Profanity, personal attacks, and spam will not be tolerated.