AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center meteorologists, led by Chief Long-Range Meteorologist and Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi, are calling for a much more active 2010 season with above-normal threats on the U.S. coastline.
"This year has the chance to be an extreme season," said Bastardi. "It is certainly much more like 2008 than 2009 as far as the overall threat to the United States' East and Gulf coasts."
Bastardi is forecasting seven landfalls. Five will be hurricanes, and two or three of the hurricanes will be major landfalls for the U.S.
He is calling for 16 to 18 tropical storms in total, 15 of which would be in the western Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico, and therefore a threat to land.
In a typical season, there are about 11 named storms, of which two to three impact the coast of the United States.
There are a number of physical drivers that have Bastardi concerned for this upcoming hurricane season. These include:
--The rapidly weakening El Niño.
--Warmer ocean temperatures in the typical Atlantic tropical breeding grounds compared to last year (tropical storms draw energy from warm water).
--Weakening trade winds which reduce the amount of dry air injected into the tropics from Africa.
--Higher humidity levels which provide additional upward motion in the air and fuel tropical storm development.
Bastardi compared a number of years to the upcoming season in terms of storm setup, including 1964, 1995, and 1998. All were major impact seasons for the U.S. coast.
In 1964, Hurricane Cleo struck southeastern Florida near Miami as a Category 2 storm and killed 217 people.
In 1995, Hurricane Opal made landfall in Pensacola, Florida as a Category 3 storm affecting 200 miles of coastline and causing $3 billion in damages.
In 1998, Hurricane Bonnie struck near Wilmington, North Carolina as a borderline Category 2 to Category 3 storm, causing significant harm to crops and $1 billion in damages.
As Bastardi had predicted in last year's hurricane forecast, the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season was a year far below the average, with 11 tropical depressions forming and only nine of those becoming tropical storms, the lowest number of named tropical storms or hurricanes since the 1997 season.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and continues through November 30. These dates were selected because 97 percent of hurricane activity occurs during this six-month period.
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The storm responsible for the wind, cold, rain and snow in the Northeast Friday and Saturday will slowly ease up for the balance of the holiday weekend.
A few days after a chilly storm departs the Northeast, warm weather will make a strong comeback in parts of the Midwest and the East later next week.
During Sunday's race, the skies will be variably cloudy with the risk of a few showers.
"This pup was literally singing when he saw his family," Michelle Karolicki, relocation program manager of the Central Oklahoma Humane Society, said about a reunion that took place on Thursday.
Another plunge of chilly air will set the stage for the risk of a frost and freeze centered Michigan, Ohio, West Virginia and other nearby states this weekend.
Downpours and locally severe thunderstorms over the Central states will not only foil holiday weekend activities, but will also put some lives at risk.
Erie, PA (1991)
One-half inch of rain fell in only 5 minutes.
A tornado of long duration was observed for 7 hours and 20 minutes and was said to extend 293 miles. The storm struck Mattoon and Charleston, killing 70 people.
New England (1967)
(25th-26th) Coastal New England battered by a great Nor'easter. Winds mounted to 70-80 mph on the coast. Blue Hill had sustained winds of 60 mph and Logan had sustained winds of 50 mph. Lowest pressure of 29.30" was measured over the ocean; 5-10" of snow fell in the Berkshires with considerable damage to the tobacco crop in the Connecticut River Valley. Temperature dropped to 31 degrees at Pittsfield on the 30th for a remarkable end of May freeze.