Hurricanes to Threaten US Late in September, October

September 17, 2010; 7:00 AM ET
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While no hurricanes have thus far made landfall on the U.S., forecast weather patterns during the last part of September into October and the first part of November suggest that may be about to change. Hurricane Expert Joe Bastardi is holding firm with his prediction of 18 to 21 named storms in the Atlantic 2010 hurricane season.

Additionally, Joe still expects multiple direct impacts on the U.S.

As the Cape Verde season winds down in October, which is a typical occurrence, the raging La Nina in the Pacific opens the door for warm waters in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico to take center stage.

Changing weather patterns and the approach of cool fronts from northern latitudes would then generate and help steer these tropical storms and hurricanes onto the U.S. coastline in the Gulf, and potentially along the Atlantic Seaboard.

Joe stated that the Cape Verde season typically winds down in October, as prior hurricanes have churned and cooled these waters. At the same time, the Asian Monsoon diminishes, ending the parade of disturbances across Africa and the infamous tropical waves around the Cape Verde Islands.

Breeding grounds during the last third of hurricane season typically migrate toward the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and far western Atlantic because of this.

According to Bastardi, "A switch from an El Nino to La Nina pattern is notorious for a jam-packed late hurricane season."

As a result, people in the coastal U.S., especially along the Gulf of Mexico, should not let their guard down.

Joe asserts, "There is an imbalance in the atmosphere, and much more energy has yet to be released."

Incidentally, at least one computer model insists a potent hurricane will form in the western Caribbean or the southern Gulf of Mexico before the end of September.

This computer model, known as the GFS to meteorologists, is forecasting a formidable hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico during the last days of September. While the model has been shifting its track back and forth in recent days, it has been consistently forecasting a storm in the Gulf during this period.

Steering currents may drive that system north toward the U.S.

Related to the Story:

South Central Radar

2010 Hurricane Center

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