Soon after the heat wave ends in the East and Midwest, the pattern of frequent downpours and the potential for flash flooding will return.
The area of high pressure responsible for the heat wave this past week will be replaced by a weather pattern favoring lower temperatures. However, humidity levels will come back rather quickly.
The pattern will tend to flip back to what occurred during much of June into the first few days of July; almost daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
While the heat wave allowed the ground to dry out and stream levels to drop a bit, persistence of the wet weather for next week and possibly through much of August could lead to renewed flooding problems in some locations.
Despite less rain this past week compared to earlier in the summer, many locations in the East have received double their normal rainfall since June 1. Cities with close to two-times their normal rainfall include Boston (11 inches), Philadelphia (12 inches), Washington, D.C. (14 inches), Atlanta (14 inches) and Raleigh, N.C. (12 inches).
The majority of locations in the Midwest have had above-average rainfall as well including Chicago (7 inches), Detroit (9 inches), Cleveland (11 inches), Nashville (10 inches) and Minneapolis (8 inches).
The most likely issues would be highly localized flash, urban and small stream flooding. However, if an organized system from the tropics were to come calling, the potential broad area of heavy rainfall produced on top of a re-saturated landscape could lead to more widespread, serious flooding.
According to Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, "While there are no specific tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin at this time, August is a period in the season when there is an uptick in the number of tropical storms and hurricanes."
Instead of a zone of high pressure at most levels of the atmosphere and a northward bulge in the jet stream over the central and eastern U.S., like that of this past week, a dip in the jet stream will occur next week and beyond. (The jet stream is a river of strong winds, high in the atmosphere that guide weather systems along).
That sort of pattern tends to produce temperatures closer to normal. The flow around high pressure offshore in the Atlantic will direct moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico and the ocean over the region.
Disturbances tracking in from the Pacific Ocean will also bring a rebound of heavy, gusty thunderstorm complexes over the Plains and Midwest in the pattern.
The potential for locally dangerous and disruptive thunderstorms will exist over the Midwest into Wednesday evening.
Areas from Central America to southeastern Mexico, western Cuba and southern Florida will be on alert into next week as a tropical system may form.
Warmth will build and evolve into a heat wave across a significant part of the western United States this week.
Rounds of heavy thunderstorms will raise the risk of flooding across the south-central United States into Friday.
Temperatures and humidity levels will throttle back as dry air expands southward in the northeastern United States through the middle of the week.
The next round of primary elections will take place on June 7 with six states heading to the polls.
Burlington, KS (1941)
12.59" of rain - 24 hour record for state.
North Texas (1982)
Wettest May on record for parts of Northern Texas and Oklahoma. Wichita Falls: 13.22" (old record set in 1891), Oklahoma City: 12.07" (old record set in 1902).
Ohio, Pennsylvania Ontario (1985)
Great tornado outbreak, reported to be the worst in Pennsylvania history. Path of destruction included 1,200 homes in Ohio alone. Eighty-nine people were killed and 550 injured. Considered by many to be the worst outbreak in the U.S. since April 3, 1974. The outbreak of tornadoes spun 21 well-defined tracks, one as long as 56 miles. Most of the tornadoes in PA, OH and southern NY were spawned from 9 different storm centers that began in the lower Great Lakes. The most violent tornado ran from Ravenna Arsenal, OH, southeast of Youngstown,OH, a distance of 41 miles to Mercer, PA. An airplane wing was carried 10 miles by the tornado.