Giovanna Winds Up, Sets Aim on Madagascar
By Evan Duffey, Meteorologist
Feb 13, 2012; 12:25 AM ET
Visible satellite of Giovanna late Monday morning, local time. (NOAA)
For Madagascar, there can be no escaping the imminent threat of a large Tropical Cyclone.
Tropical Cyclone Giovanna is currently northwest of the islands of Port Louis and Reunion, and is barreling southwest toward the eastern Madagascar coast.
Despite warm ocean waters and a lack of significant wind shear, Giovanna weakened on Sunday. That trend has now reversed, and as of late Monday morning, local time, the Tropical Cyclone is packing winds equal to that of a Category 4 hurricane.
Favorable conditions will continue all the way to the Madagascar coast, in fact recent data would seem to suggest that conditions are improving for even some further strengthening.
When Giovanna gets to the island between late Monday and early Tuesday, the system should bring substantial impact. Sustained winds over 130 mph with gusts over 150 mph are forecast for landfall. Rough surf, flooding rains and storm surge will all be serious concerns to those on the island as well.
Locations away from the coast are not exempt, as torrential rains will only lead to mudslides in the mountainous rainforests inland.
Madagascar may not be enough to completely weaken the system by the time it reaches the west coast of Madagascar, and will enter the Mozambique Channel. Computer models currently point to the system successfully crossing Madagascar and entering the Mozambique Channel. There it may re-intensify before impacting the Mozambique coast.
AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Bill Deger contributed to the content of this story
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