AccuWeather.com

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

Sep 28, 2010; 1:30 AM ET

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A tropical storm breeding ground stretching from the Caribbean to the waters of the Bahamas over the next 30 days may have Florida in the heart of a "Troptober" frenzy.

While much of the East Coast of the U.S. is likely to be influenced by the first tropical system in the series later this week, activity may congregate from the western and central Caribbean to the Gulf Stream through the better part of October.

The pattern may have central and southern Florida in the heart of a machine gun-like tropical storm pattern with direct hits or near misses from tropical systems in the coming weeks.

Repeating downpours could eventually lead to flooding problems, while days of rain and stormy seas could take their toll on beach resorts, as well as cruises in the region.

The tropical system this week appears to be just the start of a month-long threat to part of Florida and other areas in the Southwest Atlantic Basin.

The entire swath from Central America to Cuba, Hispaniola, much of the Florida Peninsula, the Bahamas, eastern North Carolina and eastern New England would be this wedge of concern for tropical activity and the resulting risks to lives and property.

Miami lies in the epicenter of this concern area.

A push of dry air from the mid-continent of the North America should protect people and property over northern Mexico, Texas and the northern Gulf Coast from most tropical concerns through the balance of hurricane season this year.

However, that same push could result in a see-saw effect flinging tropical systems northward from the Caribbean.

The closer you are to the source, the greater the risk of direct impacts from these systems. Florida is the closest of U.S. concerns in this case.

Glancing blows from one or more systems could bring episodes of strong winds, rough seas and heavy rains to points of land that stick out farther north along the Atlantic Seaboard, such as Cape Hatteras and Cape Cod.

There is also the risk that one or more of these systems is much stronger than the others, hence the risk for a major hurricane thrown into the mix.

A Word of Caution

While much of what is said is speculation at this point, it is a valid concern for all areas aforementioned.

For those that follow computer guidance, these same models tend to break down high pressure in the Atlantic too quickly and underestimate the warm waters of the Atlantic during the fall.

As a result, tropical systems emerging from the Caribbean or southwest Atlantic may track closer to the Atlantic Seaboard and too close for comfort than some of these models currently suggest.

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