While the short-range weather pattern through this week looks typical for September in the eastern United States, the region is not out of the woods for the risk of flooding in the long term.
The risk of isolated downpours will continue in the short-term today and tomorrow as a cold front pushes east.
A large area of high pressure will drill into the eastern half of the nation later this week, bringing the chilliest air of the season so far, along with concerns of frost in northern areas.
However, as this high moves toward Atlantic Canada next weekend, it will be in position to not only start pumping moisture in from the Atlantic, but may again open the door to the tropics.
In the past, such a pattern has delivered heavy areas of rain in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic regions.
Not only is there a risk of near-shore tropical development over the southern Atlantic coast if this setup transpires, but other systems deeper in the tropics, such as the Caribbean, could have a free northward run toward and into the U.S. as well.
The key will be the setup of the upper level wind pattern including the position and shape of the upper level ridge off the Atlantic Coast and the shape, tilt and longitude of a dip in the jet stream to the west.
While the threat of such systems is bad enough in a normal year, the potential for disastrous flooding is raised tenfold in areas that have received tremendous rainfall in recent weeks.
Some locations from Maine to Louisiana have received two month's worth of rain in several days during the past couple of weeks in the wake of Irene and Lee. Rivers and the overall water table will remain higher than normal for September even by next weekend.
AccuWeather.com meteorologists will continue to monitor the situation and keep you informed.
While this past Saturday marked the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics will continue to brew more threats to North America for weeks to come. Tropical waves will continue to move westward from Africa and across the Atlantic Ocean.
At least it seems Maria and the risk of heavy rain will steer east of the eastern U.S. this week.
Unfortunately, Maria and its heavy rain and gusty winds could pass near or just west of Bermuda during the middle of this week and brush Newfoundland and Nova Scotia late this week.
Several storms will bring periods of rain and gusty winds to the west coast of the United States next week with the potential for one of these to reach Southern California.
This weekend will feel dramatically different from earlier this week in the northeastern United States as colder weather, and in some cases, a taste of winter with snow arrives.
Dry weather set to dominate the southern United States into November will only worsen the already extreme drought conditions.
The changing of the seasons will bring beneficial rainfall to northern Brazil, a region that has experienced severe drought over the past several years.
Rain will continue to cause travel delays and raise the risk of isolated flooding in parts of the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada into Saturday evening.
Damaging storms pounded the Pacific Northwest, while two powerful typhoons struck the Philippines within a four-day span.
SW Caribbean (1998)
Tropical Storm Mitch formed. Mitch went on to lead to devastating flooding and loss of life across Central America later in the month.
Tuscaloosa, AL (1884)
No rain from August 28-October 22. Severe drought throughout Southeast.
Temperature reached 104 degrees at San Diego (record for date). Record for date 100 degrees at Los Angeles (downtown). Climax of heat wave of record duration in Southern California.