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    Eastern US Vulnerable to More Tropical Hits

    September 13, 2011; 7:27 PM ET
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    While the overall fact that hurricane season is far from over is a risk within itself, there are legitimate concerns in the tropics in the coming weeks.

    While the short-range weather pattern through this week looks typical for September in the eastern United States, the region is not out of the woods for the risk of flooding in the long term.

    The risk of isolated downpours will continue in the short-term today and tomorrow as a cold front pushes east.

    A large area of high pressure will drill into the eastern half of the nation later this week, bringing the chilliest air of the season so far, along with concerns of frost in northern areas.

    However, as this high moves toward Atlantic Canada next weekend, it will be in position to not only start pumping moisture in from the Atlantic, but may again open the door to the tropics.

    In the past, such a pattern has delivered heavy areas of rain in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic regions.

    Not only is there a risk of near-shore tropical development over the southern Atlantic coast if this setup transpires, but other systems deeper in the tropics, such as the Caribbean, could have a free northward run toward and into the U.S. as well.

    The key will be the setup of the upper level wind pattern including the position and shape of the upper level ridge off the Atlantic Coast and the shape, tilt and longitude of a dip in the jet stream to the west.

    While the threat of such systems is bad enough in a normal year, the potential for disastrous flooding is raised tenfold in areas that have received tremendous rainfall in recent weeks.

    Some locations from Maine to Louisiana have received two month's worth of rain in several days during the past couple of weeks in the wake of Irene and Lee. Rivers and the overall water table will remain higher than normal for September even by next weekend.

    AccuWeather.com meteorologists will continue to monitor the situation and keep you informed.

    While this past Saturday marked the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics will continue to brew more threats to North America for weeks to come. Tropical waves will continue to move westward from Africa and across the Atlantic Ocean.

    At least it seems Maria and the risk of heavy rain will steer east of the eastern U.S. this week.

    Unfortunately, Maria and its heavy rain and gusty winds could pass near or just west of Bermuda during the middle of this week and brush Newfoundland and Nova Scotia late this week.

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