AccuWeather.com

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

Aug 31, 2010; 9:00 AM ET

Share |

After buzzing Puerto Rico and part of the Leeward Islands to start the week, Hurricane Earl is turning northward with intent to rattle the Atlantic Seaboard on the last unofficial week of summer.

In short, areas from North Carolina to New England and Atlantic Canada will be adversely affected by Earl during the second half of the week with areas of beach erosion, possible damaging wind gusts, coastal flooding, and dangerous seas and surf.

How nasty the weather gets in this region will depend on the exact track of Earl and its proximity to the coast.

Earl could behave similarly to Hurricane Gloria in 1985, but with a slightly slower and farther east track.

Earl will be hitting during a heat wave in the Northeast, when many people will be flocking to beaches for one last summer holiday.

Timeline of Effects

Earl churned waters north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands with angry, dangerous seas on Monday, while heavy rain, flooding downpours and power-zapping winds blasted the islands.

During Tuesday, Earl will pass north of Hispaniola, while bringing the Dominican Republic and Haiti squalls that can cause similar incidents to that of the Virgin Islands and Haiti. Fortunately Earl is passing farther to the north of Hispaniola.

Earl will next churn the very warm waters northeast of the Bahamas Tuesday night and Wednesday. Earl maintained a solid Category 4 status Monday night with winds of 135 mph. The storm was weakening temporarily Tuesday, due to dry air entrainment and eye wall replacement.

While the worst effects will likely stay northeast of the Bahamas, exposed waters around the islands can become rough and dangerous. Any squalls that pass through could cause minor damage. Meanwhile, seas around the center of the storm to the northeast will top 40 feet.

Even well away from the center of Earl, seas will build well in advance along the U.S. coastline.

People from northern Florida to the Outer Banks of North Carolina will notice swells and rip currents building during the day Tuesday.

Very rough, stormy conditions are in store for eastern North Carolina Thursday into Friday with at least strong tropical storm conditions. Waves along the Outer Banks may reach 20 feet or higher, with 40-foot seas offshore. Wind gusts may reach hurricane force.

As Earl reaches the waters off the coast of North Carolina, it will begin to lose strength, but its forward motion will increase, and the overall size of the storm may expand.

The leading edge of the swells and currents will arrive from Virginia to Long Island Wednesday.

Areas from southeastern Virginia to Maryland, New Jersey and Long Island are in for the brunt Earl's winds and seas Thursday night into Friday.

Conditions will dramatically worsen over Cape Cod and the islands Friday afternoon, with the worst or Earl likely in these areas Friday night. Similar to the Outer Banks, gusts again may reach hurricane force with offshore seas of over 35 feet.

Earl's next stop may be a "direct hit" over Nova Scotia and Newfoundland during the first part of the weekend. By then, Earl is still likely to be a hurricane with Category 1 or 2 status, and the stormy conditions to go along with it.

The Rainfall Question

The amount of rain that falls in coastal areas is a big question mark. Sometimes, dry air prevents much rain from spreading inland of the coast. Conversely, flooding rain plows inland on occasion.

Since Earl is not likely to do more than just brush the Outer Banks and Cape Cod, a large area of heavy rain spreading hundreds of miles inland is "not" likely at this time from the southern Atlantic Seaboard to interior New York state.

Only if Earl tracks farther westward would heavy rain sweep to the I-95 corridor from Raleigh to Richmond, Washington, D.C, Philadelphia and New York City.

However, drenching rain may reach well into southeastern New England, including Providence and Boston, and could overwhelm a large part of Atlantic Canada as Earl transforms from a tropical to an extratropical system and grows in size.

While the overall weather and surf will dramatically improve along the Atlantic coast of the U.S. during Labor Day weekend in Earl's wake, there will still be dangerous rip currents Saturday from North Carolina northward as seas subside.

AccuWeather.com meteorologists will also be keeping an eye on Tropical Storm Fiona lurking in the shadow of Earl, which was upgraded late Monday afternoon.

Related to the Story:

Earl's Strength to Fluctuate, Category 5 a Long Shot

Earl on a Path to Batter Outer Banks, Cape Cod

Earl to Threaten Nova Scotia, Newfoundland

How Northeast Should Prepare for Hurricane Earl

Southeast Radar

2010 Hurricane Center

Visit our Facebook Fan Page

Follow us on Twitter Breaking Weather