After a ridge of high pressure provided largely dry conditions across Great Britain, Ireland and France on Sunday, a fast-moving area of low pressure will bring spells of rain, some heavy, across the region through Tuesday that will lead to the threat of isolated flooding.
The heaviest rain into Monday night will fall across southern England, northern France, Belgium, Netherlands and southern Germany. Total rainfall of 15-40 mm (0.50-1.50 in) will fall in these areas. This includes the Greater London area, Paris, Amsterdam and Belgium.
Already this month, rainfall has been 100-200 percent of normal across Ireland, Wales and England with some locations receiving even higher amounts. Shawbury, England, has seen over twice as much rain as they can expect to see through this point of the month. In London, rainfall is 162 percent of normal for the month.
Because of the above-average rain early this month and the threat for additional rain, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Tyler Roys says, "Locations across southern Britain will be at the greatest threat for isolated flooding." He went on to say, "A minor flood threat is also present in northern France."
Any flooding should be confined to low-lying and poor drainage areas.
Because of the threat of heavy rain, the United Kingdom's Met Office issued a Yellow Warning for rain across Wales and the southern half of England.
In addition to the threat for heavy rain, the low pressure system will also bring gusty winds and chilly air to Ireland and southern England. Monday afternoon, wind will gust 50-65 kph (30-40 mph) and high temperatures will struggle to rise much above 16-19 C (middle 60s F). In London, ReelFeel temperatures will only climb as high as 15 C (59 F).
Rain will quickly spread across central Europe on Tuesday and will bring soggy conditions from France and Germany into southern Poland and the Czech Republic. While the rain will not be heavy in most location, Roys points out that there could be locally heavy rain in the western Alps in southeastern France as moisture is pushed up against the mountains.
Much like across the United Kingdom, temperatures will be low, not reaching 20 C (68 F) across Germany and Poland. Temperatures will only be in the low 20s C (near 70 F) in central and northern France. This is several degrees below average for the region.
Clouds and light rain will linger across southern England and Wales into Tuesday.
By Wednesday, showers will linger across much of central Europe while another storm system reaches Ireland. Rain will spread across the United Kingdom Wednesday night into Thursday.
Meteorologist Eric Leister contributed to this story.
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