Muddy 2010 Kentucky Derby with Flooding, Severe Weather Risk
Flooding rain, violent thunderstorms and a tornado outbreak are among the concerns AccuWeather.com meteorologists have this weekend for the Ohio and lower Mississippi valleys, including Churchill Downs and the Kentucky Derby this afternoon.
The weather could look something like this or worse at the 2010 Kentucky Derby. Photo by Photos.com.
Flooding
This could potentially be the wettest Kentucky Derby ever. According to the National Weather Service, the wettest Derby was in 1918, when 2.31 inches of rain fell.
The track has been muddy all week from the 1 to 2 inches of rain that fell last weekend.
AccuWeather.com meteorologists are concerned that a repeating thunderstorm pattern from Friday night through this evening could yield another couple inches of rain. This could lead to flooded grounds and the track at Churchill Downs becoming more like a swamp.
Motorists heading to the Derby, or driving in general, are advised not to drive through flooded areas and roadways. The water may be much deeper than you think, and only a foot of water can sweep a vehicle away.
While the Derby has never been postponed, drenching, saturating rain is not the only concern for thoroughbred horse racing fans, officials, jockeys and owners.
Lightning
Clapping, booming thunder could have some of the horses on edge.
Throughout today, thunderstorms over the Ohio Valley will also bring the risk of lightning strikes. Louisville, Ky., is in the heart of the Ohio Valley, and the region lies in the middle of AccuWeather.com's area of concern for violent weather much of this weekend.
A crowd in the neighborhood of 150,000 is typically in attendance at U.S. horse racing's most famous event. Those people attending the Derby, or anyone who will be outdoors for any reason, should keep in mind that if you can hear thunder, you are at risk for being struck by lightning.
Severe Weather
Thunderstorms with potential for damaging winds, hail and even a tornado could affect the Louisville area into Sunday.
The first round of thunderstorms is forecast to move eastward into the Mississippi and Ohio valleys today. However, the forward progress of the storms will slow and then stall nearby, opening the door for multiple episodes of violent thunderstorms through the end of the weekend.
Thunderstorms produced large hail and spun off tornadoes over the central Plains on Thursday night and from Wisconsin to Texas once again on Friday evening.
Mudder's Day
The most likely situation for the Derby this afternoon appears to be that of a frog strangler with rain being the great equalizer, or in the case of the atmosphere, the stabilizer.
Clouds and cooling rain would prevent the strong updrafts and downdrafts necessary for rotating thunderstorms and tornadoes. However, if the sun were to burst through, much to the delight of spectators, it could yield one of those more violent thunderstorms around the time of the race.
AccuWeather.com meteorologists will continue to monitor the tornado, severe weather and flooding potential.
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Daily U.S. Extremes
past 24 hours
| Extreme | Location | |
|---|---|---|
| High | 113° | Death Valley, CA |
| Low | 30° | Bellemont, AZ |
| Precip | 9.70" | Miami, FL |
WeatherWhys®
A large, horrific tornado struck the city of Joplin, Mo., last year on this date. The twister cut a deadly path across the south side of the city, leaving over 159 dead and at least 1,150 injured. The Joplin tornado currently ranks as the 7th deadliest tornado in U.S. history.
This Day In Weather History
New Hampshire (1814)
A tornado crossed Merrimac, Litchfield, Londonderry and North Chester. The same storm produced hailstones that had an 11-inch circumference and weighed 1/2 pound.
Northeast (1989)
More rain in an already wet month. Monthly totals topped 11 inches at New York City, 9 inches at Bridgeport, Conn., and 8 inches at Baltimore (all three totals set records for May).
Rough Weather
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