AccuWeather.com

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

Jun 3, 2010; 11:30 AM ET

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The arrival of hurricane season and the warmest months of the year translate to rough waters and trouble for containment operations of the massive oil leak in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Water temperatures have warmed considerably over the Gulf of Mexico in recent months. The warm waters will favor the formation of thunderstorms, rather than lead to their demise like that of the cold water season.

The period of calm seas is coming to a close as well. Tropical waves of low pressure roll will soon drift farther north on their westward trip across the Atlantic from Africa. The waves of low pressure, which can breed tropical storms or hurricanes, can also bring intense squalls that kick up seas.

Approximately 1,900 vessels ranging from skimmers to tugs, barges and recovery ships were involved in containment and cleanup operations to date.

Skimmer vessels in operation over the Gulf of Mexico. AP / U.S. Coast Guard Photo.

Skimming vessels have been circling the oil slick in recent weeks in an attempt to keep the contaminated area as small as possible. However, this operation can only be done in calm or nearly calm seas.

As winds increase from thunderstorms, squalls or tropical storms in the coming weeks, interruptions of containment operations will become more frequent.

If and when capping of the damaged well is successful, the oil is pumped onto a platform. First a temporary platform is brought in, followed by a more permanent platform. Only this heavy duty platform is designed to handle hurricanes.

AccuWeather.com Hurricane Expert Meteorologist Joe Bastardi remains concerned about multiple hurricanes affecting the Gulf of Mexico this season.

Depending on the strength and track of the hurricanes, vast amounts of the existing oil slick and dispersant agents could be captured by the storm and driven well inland by the storm surge.

Similar to the problems facing vessels during stormy conditions, containment and absorbent booms are ineffective during choppy seas. Approximately 4.1 million feet of booms have been deployed to date.

At least on a positive note, while hurricane can be very disruptive at the surface and along the shoreline, there is no wave action 5,000 feet below the surface. As long as the new pipe, which extends to the surface, is detached or secured during a storm, no further damage should be done to the well site and capping devices down below.

A Tropical Storm in the Gulf in mid-June?

While there have been a couple of minor concerns with tropical development over the past few weeks, there now appears the long-range first computer model's rendition of a tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

The GFS, or Global Forecast System, weather computer model is developing an area in the western Caribbean Sea during the second week of June. The model then brings that system into the Gulf of Mexico and strengthens it, just past the middle of the month.

The GFS's idea of what the weather during the evening of Thursday, June 17, 2010, would look like the U.S. and coastal waters. "L's" designate areas of low pressure. Green and blue areas suggest areas of precipitation and its intensity.

While weather computer models routinely latch onto a storm or weather pattern days and weeks in advance, their ideas are treated with caution by meteorologists until other computer models come into agreement or a particular model continues with the idea on a daily basis.

AccuWeather.com meteorologists will be keeping an eye on the situation on the Gulf of Mexico, other concerns in the tropical Atlantic and other oceans around the world.

Related to the Story:

South Central Radar

Tropical Weather Center

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