AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring a disturbance near the Bahamas for a brief window of potential tropical development.
A weak area of low pressure has developed at the surface, according to AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Frank Strait. However, thunderstorms are all located on the east side due to high wind shear that has been preventing the disturbance from developing into an organized tropical system thus far.
Satellite loop of Bahamas disturbance from NOAA.
The low will not likely develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm until thunderstorms wrap around the center of the low and help it to gain additional strengthen. There is a brief window over the next 24-36 hours, where wind shear may relax just enough for this to happen.
"There is some chance the low level circulation center could wrap up similar to what we just observed with Oscar," AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said.
The next name on the list for the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season is Patty.
Any tropical development will have to occur quickly by Tuesday evening before wind shear is expected to become even stronger.
"Beyond that, we expect the southwest shear to be even stronger, which will create too much of a vertically tilted storm system," Kottlowski added.
The Bahamas, Bermuda and shipping interests should keep a close eye on this disturbance. With a trough over the eastern U.S., the system would likely get steered away from the U.S.
As July draws to a close, a storm system swinging up from the Deep South will bring downpours to the northeastern U.S. and break the back of an extended heat wave.
Repeating and slow-moving storms will raise the risk of flash flooding and damaging winds over northern and central High Plains into Thursday night.
The F1 season continues this weekend with the German Grand Prix in Hockenheim with disruptive showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.
Highs will run between 10 and 15 degrees Fahrenheit above average across much of the interior western United States into the upcoming weekend.
Repeating downpours will raise the risk for flash flooding along the Gulf coast and lower Mississippi Valley through the middle days of the week.
The heat felt across the United Kingdom during the middle of July has faded and is not expected to return through at least the first week of August.
Marquette, Il (1988)
99 degrees for a date record.
Hurricane Bertha formed 450 miles east of Jacksonville, FL. Maximum sustained winds of 75 mph with gusts to 90 mph.
Western Pacific (1990)
Typhoon Steve east of Iwo Jimo. Peak winds of 125 mph sustained gusts to 155 mph.