Judging by the overall weather pattern and ideas from several computer models, the odds are increasing for tropical cyclone formation in the western Atlantic Basin before the end of the month.
At the very least, a period of rough seas and strong thunderstorms will affect part of the Gulf of Mexico next week.
AccuWeather.com Hurricane and Long Range Expert Meteorologist Joe Bastardi assimilates the current weather pattern in the Atlantic Basin to a "tropical brew that is ready to boil over."
Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and the Southwest Atlantic are already very warm, compared to normal.
Tropical waves of low pressure rolling westward from Africa are already very active and are progressively becoming more vigorous.
One wave, bound to cause trouble, is currently drifting slowly westward through the central Caribbean and will deliver gusty, drenching thunderstorms to Hispaniola, where Haiti is located, today.
Satellite image of the tropical wave that is being monitored for tropical development.
There is an abundance of showers and thunderstorms in the Caribbean, which represents plenty of "potential energy" for tropical cyclone formation.
Some computer models are developing the tropical wave in the Caribbean later this week.
These models go so far as to spin up the first tropical storm of the Atlantic season. At least one of these models develops a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico between the 28th and 30th.
The first name on the 2010 list in the Atlantic is "Alex."
Another tropical system is forecast by computer models to take shape shortly thereafter east of the Bahamas.
Bastardi has warned of the potential for 20 tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin this season. Tropical cyclones are tropical storms and hurricanes; in other words, named systems.
While the oil spill area and other coastal regions and islands will dodge some bullets, the odds of multiple tropical storms and/or hurricanes tracking over the oil spill and other locations are exceptionally high this year, due to the number of named systems expected.
Disruptions caused by multiple hurricanes to oil spill cleanup and containment operations are one matter, the potential damage and destruction to coastal areas from wind and storm surge near and well away from the oil slick, takes this season to a whole new level.
Residents, business owners and government officials need to have a plan of action for what may be an exceptional hurricane season.
While the strength of the system forecast to enter the Gulf of Mexico late this weekend into early next week is questionable, there is the risk of squalls and building seas in the vicinity of the oil slick and cleanup/containment operations for up to a several-day period.
Related to the Story:
See how far away severe thunderstorms are as we monitor the severe weather with these radar images.
Heavy rain returning to the northern Plains will generate a renewed flood threat for the Red River.
Mount Saint Helens has erupted several times since the destructive 1980 eruption, and likely will again in the future.
Seven homes have been red tagged, meaning do not occupy, and six others are under a voluntary evacuation order.
Though recovery continues from Superstorm Sandy, residents and homeowners on the Atlantic coast should prepare for another active season in 2013.
While there is a threat for a shower in spots in Baltimore, Md., today, it will not be a washout like the day of the Kentucky Derby.
Mapleton, MN (2007)
5.80 inches of rain fell in 3.5 hours. Side streets were flooded and a few cars were stalled in the water.
Record rainfall during thunderstorms at Beaumont (4.22 inches in 6 hours) and Port Arthur (about 6 inches in 8 hours).
Moorcroft, WY (1978)
27 inches of snow (17th-20th), bringing total for the month to 92 inches.